Patrick Low

Macroscope | The Brexit question is down to the wire, and things are getting nasty

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The pro-Brexit camp have ‘soundbites on their side and popular anger over austerity and stagnant incomes’

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The British referendum on whether to remain in the European Union is only six weeks away. Photo: Reuters

Patrick Low

Published: 9:56am, 11 May 2016Updated: 9:56am, 11 May 2016

Ten weeks ago this column discussed the upcoming referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union. The Brexit debate has moved on since then. It has become a lot nastier, the rhetoric sharper and angrier. The fateful decision is now only six weeks away. Opinion polls suggest the vote could go either way.

Three issues that dominate the battleground are the economic consequences of Brexit, immigration, and the excesses of EU regulation. Inevitably, the focus is parochial and inward-looking for those yearning departure.

The fateful decision is now only six weeks away

Third parties, including EU members, have argued against Brexit. Donald Trump is the only exception. Britain’s departure will weaken Europe as well as Britain. The consequences of a lesser Europe will also weigh globally, not least on the EU-US relationship.

Much of the economic argument has been about trade relationships. Studies from the UK Treasury, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and a number of think tanks have concluded that Britain will be poorer and its economy smaller with Brexit.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and British Environment Secretary Liz Truss address invitees at an event at the National Composites Centre at the Bristol and Bath Science Park in Bristol on April 18, 2016. If Britain leaves the European Union its economy could be 6 percentage points smaller than it would otherwise have been by 2030, the finance ministry warned in a report that was dismissed as scaremongering by eurosceptics. The report said a Brexit would cause

The only way Britain could maintain the market access privileges owed to an EU member would be to accept the regulatory framework governing EU trade and also pay a contribution to the EU budget, as do Switzerland and Norway for this right. And this would be without a say in such matters.

Britain would also forego the benefits of preferential trade deals between the EU and more than 50 other countries, as well as its participation in current negotiations on some 20 other agreements. It would have to plough its own trade furrow and that would not be straightforward or quick. Erstwhile EU partners will be in no mood to be kind to a departing member.