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Cheah Cheng Hye
Cheah Cheng Hye is the co-chairman, co-chief investment officer and co-founder of Value Partners Group, a Hong Kong-listed fund management company. He is also an independent non-executive director of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. He was previously a financial journalist, working in such publications as Far Eastern Economic Review and The Asian Wall Street Journal.
There is no alternative of comparable potential for Hong Kong than the mainland and its deep pool of household savings.
One way to help Hong Kong endure and thrive in this era of uncertainty is to further reform elections and have universal suffrage in voting for chief executive. Doing so would give the government broader representation, a stronger mandate and the ability to enact measures hindered by entrenched interest groups.
Investment strategies such as ‘buying the dip’ aren’t enough to safeguard asset value amid geopolitical upheavals. Much better to identify winners over the long run, and China is poised to emerge on the right side of history with its focus on sustainability and common prosperity.
When President Xi Jinping announced the launch of the Beijing stock exchange, it signalled the highest level of support for capital market development. Beijing intends to redirect household savings away from property and into stocks and other capital market products.
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Far from turning back the clock on capitalism, Beijing is using it to help socialism amid challenges including geopolitical tensions, an ageing population and an overheated property market.
There is a growing risk Hong Kong society will increasingly resemble that of the mainland as Beijing’s influence becomes pervasive. Hong Kong needs to refresh its own system to make it more sustainable and avoid having Beijing intervene further in its affairs.
Restructuring Hong Kong could be disruptive, but the city can afford to take some short-term pain for long-term gain. The entrenched elite fail to see that a rejuvenated Hong Kong would achieve new heights of prosperity.
A majority of Asian stock markets are relatively smaller and less liquid than those in the West, perhaps giving less scope for buying frenzies. Indeed, China is looking attractive as a haven for global investors seeking to hedge against rising risks.
Renewed cooperation or even a fresh partnership between China and the United States remains a logical and compelling solution to problems faced by both sides. Mutual benefit should eventually bring both sides back together.
Amid the crisis comes a chance to start afresh, agree on some form of electoral democracy and press on with much-needed social and economic reforms in housing and jobs. It is time for Hong Kong to stop being governed by cartels and caretakers
Even if Carrie Lam were to quit as chief executive, the anger that led to the mass protests would not die down as long as the local economy continues to be run by cartels, especially in the housing sector. Shock therapy is needed urgently.
China has work to do to earn international investors’ trust and produce greater returns, but its size and the interest it already generates suggest it will shake the world over the next decade.
One of the biggest problems we face today is that a large and growing number of Hong Kong people no longer feel they have a stake in the success of Hong Kong.
