Say ‘xie xie’ and forget Taiwan? South Korea’s Yoon taps public resentment to snub calls for better Beijing ties

South Korea’s conservative president has damaged trade ties by unnecessarily ‘antagonising’ mainland China, according to the opposition chief
But Yoon looks set to rebuff ‘submissive’ calls to back down on the Taiwan issue, a position analysts say aligns with public sentiment in South Korea

South Korea

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 4:30pm, 25 Mar 2024

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South Korean conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol is poised to maintain a hardline stance on China, despite the expected victory of liberals in next month’s parliamentary elections.

Analysts say Yoon’s position aligns with the “resentment against China” felt by much of the Korean public, with polls suggesting seven out of 10 South Koreans have an unfavourable view of the country.

But top opposition leader Lee Jae-myung’s remarks still stirred controversy last week.

Lee Jae-myung, chairman of the main opposition Democratic Party, speaks at a party event in Seoul ahead of the April 10 elections. Photo: Yonhap via EPA-EFE

Lee, currently on the campaign trail ahead of pivotal April 10 parliamentary elections, on Friday accused Yoon of jeopardising trade relations with China through unnecessary provocations, spurring the ruling conservative People Power Party to attack the head of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea for his “submissive” attitude towards China.

“We can simply say xie xie (thank you) to both [mainland] China and Taiwan … Why should we intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue?”, Lee said on Friday while campaigning for his party’s candidates in the southwestern city of Dangjin.

China remains South Korea’s top trading partner, absorbing some 80 per cent of the East Asian nation’s annual US$54 billion trade surplus from 2010 to 2021.

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But this has changed in recent years, with the trade surplus shrinking to US$1.2 billion in 2022. Last year, South Korea registered a trade deficit, of US$18 billion, with China for the first time in decades – a drop mainly attributed to slow chip exports and Chinese products gaining a competitive edge.

Lee, elsewhere on the campaign trail earlier this month, emphasised how Yoon’s government had contributed to the trade deficit by unnecessarily “antagonising” China since coming to power in May 2022.

Han Dong-hoon, the leader of Yoon’s ruling party, said on Saturday that Lee’s comments underscored the liberal opposition’s perceived acquiescence towards China.

“Acting like a bystander on the issue of Taiwan Strait is contradicting our national interests at a time when the world is being divided into different blocs”, Han said.

Acting like a bystander on the issue of Taiwan Strait is contradicting our national interests at a time when the world is being divided into different blocs

Han Dong-hoon, People Power Party leader

Analysts say it would be difficult to insulate the Korean peninsula from a war over Taiwan as US troops stationed in the South would be under pressure to intervene and the North would be tempted to create troubles along the border.

Troubles in the Taiwan Strait would also have a significant economic impact on South Korea as 42.7 per cent of its trade, including crucial energy imports, passes through it.

According to Han, he declined an invitation to the Chinese embassy in Seoul in June last year for a meeting with Ambassador Xing Haiming, but Lee happily responded to the invitation and “meekly” nodded to Xing’s “threats” that Seoul would certainly “regret” if it “bets on the United States entirely”.

If the conservatives win back a majority in parliament, Han said his party would amend laws to deprive foreigners living in South Korea of their right to vote. They are currently only allowed to cast ballots in provincial elections.

Han cited the principle of reciprocity in diplomacy as China and many other countries do not grant foreigners voting rights.

02:17

Beijing criticises South Korea for inviting Taiwan to democracy summit

South Korea hosts some 120,000 permanent foreign residents, including 100,000 Chinese nationals of Korean ancestry.

Democratic Party of Korea spokesman Kang Min-seok defended Lee, saying: “China is our largest trade partner … The purpose of diplomacy is national interest”.

Pollsters mostly agree that the main liberal opposition party and its offshoot Rebuilding Korea Party are expected to jointly win a majority in the 300-seat National Assembly and extend their parliamentary control for another four years.

In South Korea’s sharply polarised political arena, splits in public opinion are most visible when it comes to diplomacy, said Political-Science Professor Jhee Byong-keun of Chonnam National University, with Yoon’s efforts to mend fences with Japan earning both praise from conservatives and criticism from liberals.

Yoon walks with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio following their three-way talks at Camp David in August last year. Photo: Getty Images/AFP

Following the elections, Yoon is likely to face growing pressure from an opposition-controlled parliament to ease tensions with the North through dialogue and improve ties with China and Russia, analysts say.

“However, it’s hardly likely for the government to change its course in diplomacy”, said Park Won-gon, a political science professor at Ehwa Womans University in Seoul, as South Korea’s parliament, unlike the US Senate, has scant authority over matters relating to international relations.

“Public resentment against China is too strong for the opposition to continue raising issues with the government’s policy toward China as polls suggest seven out of 10 South Koreans don’t like China,” he told This Week in Asia.

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South Korea has aligned itself more closely with the United States and Japan to cope with the nuclear-armed North, while Pyongyang has been closing ranks with China and Russia amid the war in Ukraine.

“The Yoon government is likely to toughen its stance towards the North all the more to rally support among conservatives following the elections”, said Yang Moo-jion, a political-science professor at the University of North Korean Studies.