However, Shin’s remarks caused a palpable downturn in diplomatic relations with Russia, pushing them to a new low.

“We firmly reject any attempts by the United States and its satellite countries to make baseless accusations against our country … We would like to caution Seoul against imprudent steps that could lead to a complete breakdown of once-friendly relations with Russia,” she said.

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South Korea’s foreign ministry responded by reaffirming Seoul’s stance of providing non-lethal weapons, but stressed bilateral ties would depend on Russia’s future involvement with North Korea.

“Ballistic missile trade and military technology cooperation between Russia and North Korea constitute a clear violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions. Such actions pose a serious threat not only to the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula but also to global peace,” the ministry said.

Relations between Seoul and Moscow have been tense since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

While adhering to the principle of providing no weapons to a country at war, South Korea joined the international community’s financial sanctions against Russia, a move that prompted Moscow to designate the Asian country as one of “unfriendly” countries.

This nuanced stance reflects Seoul’s effort to maintain equilibrium in a geopolitical landscape where it must balance the demands of its alliance with the US against the need to navigate Russia’s sensitivities, analysts said.

“As Seoul seeks to safeguard its defence through its alliance with the US, it needs to tread carefully to avoid further exacerbating tensions with Russia in a delicate diplomatic dance,” Andrei Lankov, an international-relations professor at Kookmin University, told This Week in Asia.

“However, the Russo-South Korea ties are likely to deteriorate further, as the South finds its wiggle room shrinking under continuing pressures from Washington to help Ukraine more actively,” he said.

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Citing defence ministry sources, the independent Hankyoreh newspaper in Seoul reported in December that South Korea had “lent” the US 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells to help replenish American artillery stockpile depleted by aid to Ukraine.

In retaliation against South Korea’s further “imprudent steps”, Lankov said Russia was highly likely to enhance its military cooperations with the North, providing it with sensitive military technology.

“South Korea, caught between pressure from Washington and the worst security threats from the nuclear-armed North Korea in four decades, cannot afford to actively pursue improvement of ties with Russia,” he said.

02:07

North Korea, China vow to deepen ties as Pyongyang conducts new missile tests

North Korea, China vow to deepen ties as Pyongyang conducts new missile tests

Park Won-gon, a political-science professor at Ewha Woman’s University, said Seoul was currently verifying allegations that Russia was helping the North develop missiles and spy satellites, which would pose “existential threats” to the South.

“Under these circumstances, no one can point the finger of blame at South Korea for keeping open the possibility of providing lethal weapons to Ukraine as a deterrence against Russia in case it supplies the North with sensitive military technology,” he said. “The future relationship between Russia and South Korea hinges on Russia’s actions regarding North Korea.”

Lee Seong-hyon, a senior researcher at the Sejoing Institute, noted that both Russia and South Korea aimed to avoid further deterioration in their relations.

However, he acknowledged that repairing ties in the near future might be challenging due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

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Leif-Eric Easley, an international studies professor at Ewha Womans University, said Pyongyang often argued its weapons tests and militaristic rhetoric were responses to Seoul’s defence exercises and statements about deterrence.

South Korea has increased security cooperation with Japan and the US, warning that North Korean use of nuclear weapons would mean the end of the Kim Jong-un regime, he said.

However, Pyongyang has taken disproportionate steps, including missile tests it says are preparations for nuclear war, abolishing organisations for inter-Korean exchanges and labelling Seoul an enemy to be defeated, he said.

“Although many of Kim’s recent pronouncements are likely for domestic political consumption, the US and its allies must take North Korean threats seriously and tighten their coordination,” Easley added.

Kim Joon-hyung, former head of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said it was “nonsensical” for South Korea’s defence minister to make highly sensitive remarks on geopolitical issues in a “personal” capacity.

“Through repeated warnings, Russia has drawn a red line. If South Korea yields pressure and proceeds to supply Ukraine with legal weapons, it would be an end to their bilateral relations” that goes back to 1990 when then Soviet Union entered diplomatic ties with Seoul, Kim said.