As embattled Thai PM Prayuth courts a general’s favour, another Shinawatra eyes power
- Prayuth’s recent dinner date with his top cabinet members comes amid an economic crisis and a controversy over the length of his tenure
- Meanwhile, amid talk of an early election, Prayuth faces a new challenger – ex-PM Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, who got married in Hong Kong in 2019
The junta general’s aloofness and temper has been well-reported, as well as his tendency to keep subordinates on a tight leash – cabinet members are often seen looking subdued in meetings or at press conferences, where reporters have also been on the receiving end of Prayuth’s wrath.
But amid a pandemic-induced economic crisis that has sent household debts and inflation soaring, Prayuth’s public popularity has plunged, with his background in defence seen as a weakness in dealing with complex issues. His seat could also run out of constitutional support as it reaches an eight-year limit for a prime minister’s tenure in August, raising questions of how much time he has in power.
Thus Prayuth’s sudden display of warmth for his politicians – especially long-time ally and former army personnel Prawit Wongsuwan, who leads the Palang Pracharath party that nominated Prayuth in the 2019 election – has been viewed as an effort to keep the coalition in line.
Eight-year limit
Debate over the correct end of Prayuth’s tenure has flared in recent months. When he led a coup that toppled Yingluck Shinawatra in May 2014, Prayuth received a royal decree to start his premiership in August.
This means that based on the Thai constitution, which allows a prime minister to serve a maximum term of eight years, Prayuth’s tenure will end in August this year.
However, critics say if Prayuth’s term officially began in March 2019, when his party won the general election, he could remain in the top job until March 2023.
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These technicalities are expected to be cleared by the constitutional court, but so far no cases have yet been filed against Prayuth.
“Even if the case is raised at court, from past verdicts, the court interprets the law in favour of the government,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“When Prayuth stayed on in the residence of the army chief long after he retired, the court didn’t penalise him either,” he said, referring to the 2020 constitutional court’s verdict on the case that the opposition said was further evidence of abuse of power.
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Hanging by a thread
Last month, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit sparked talk of an early election when he reportedly suggested that parliament may be dissolved after the end of the Apec summit, which Thailand will host in November.
His remarks were viewed as a bid to ease tensions within the coalition amid plummeting economic and political ratings.
Prayuth later rubbished the rumours, saying it would be his decision to make, signalling a crack in the decades-long friendship between the two military men.
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While Prayuth holds the top job, he has for years been reliant on Prawit, to whom he remains beholden even as his days “are clearly numbered”, according to Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting fellow in the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“Without a political party of his own, Prayuth precariously relies on the goodwill of General Prawit and Palang Pracharath, and the leaders of other government parties to shore up his premiership and to defend him in the House,” he said.
“He remains on the defensive, waiting for his opponents to make their move and then respond,” he said. “This is not a sustainable strategy.”
Formed in 2018, Palang Pracharath leads the coalition and nominated Prayuth to run as prime minister in the 2019 general election.
As Thailand’s woes grow, Prayuth’s re-nomination by Palang Pracharath looks increasingly unlikely, especially after he sacked Thammanat Prompao, the deputy agriculture minister and Prawit’s close aide, last September following an alleged backdoor deal to oust Prayuth.
In January, Thammanat and 20 other Palang Pracharath MPs moved to the Thai Economic Party founded by another Prawit aide. Since jumping ship, Thammanat has said his bloc cannot guarantee support for Prayuth.
Out of 475 MPs in Thailand’s parliament, the governing coalition can count on some 250 votes, with a little over 200 for the opposition. The rest are swing votes that will decide Prayuth’s fate in the tentative no-confidence vote in May.
But the result could still be unpredictable, said political scientist Titipol, depending on whether early election was a benefit for either the government or the opposition.
“I think for the government to stay on, factions can increase their negotiating power to source funding for their election campaign. A house dissolution would only result in an early election, but it doesn’t provide an opportunity for MPs to manage a budget allocation,” he said.
“An early election will not benefit the opposition either, because after the election, the [appointed] Senate will vote for Prayuth or his surrogate as PM.”
A new future?
To capitalise on Prayuth’s shaky future, the opposition Pheu Thai party – backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup – this year introduced Thaksin’s youngest daughter Paetongtarn, 35, to the political arena.
The political science graduate was thrust into the spotlight in 2019 during her glitzy wedding to Pidok Sooksawas in Hong Kong’s ultra-luxurious Rosewood Hotel.
The banquet, attended by the entire Shinawatra clan – including the self-exiled Thaksin – put on display the family’s continued regional influence, with Thai and other Asian elites in attendance at the event.
Also in attendance at the wedding was Thailand’s Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya, whose bid that year to run as a prime ministerial candidate for the Shinawatra clan was vetoed by her brother the king.
Last month, the party gave Paetongtarn a special title of “Pheu Thai family leader”, in an announcement made in the party’s traditional stronghold of Thailand’s northeast. The move came after her appointment in October as party adviser.
Paetongtarn’s debut attracted much fanfare and occurred as the Prayuth government released a new scheme to fight inflation and higher energy prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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If she runs as a candidate for prime minister and wins, Paetongtarn will be the fourth person from the Shinawatra family to run the country, after her father, aunt Yingluck, and Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat.
“Unlike in the first years after Thaksin’s exile, the Shinawatra brand no longer monopolises the northeast region,” said Titipol, who is based in Ubon Ratchathani, a major northeastern province. “Paetongtarn might represent the new generation, but there are more choices for the young, like the Move Forward Party.”
Move Forward was launched before the 2019 general election by anti-establishment tycoon Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and came third, receiving 6.2 million votes nationwide, after Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharath, which gained 7.9 million and 8.4 million votes, respectively.
But recent polls suggest that Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat, who served after Thanathorn faced a 10-year political ban, is the most preferred prime ministerial candidate.
In a survey conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) in March, over 13 per cent of 2,020 respondents aged 18 and over said they preferred Pita as leader, while 12.67 per cent backed Prayuth, and 12.53 per cent favoured Paetongtarn.
The survey came after another Nida poll, conducted at the height of the Delta-fuelled Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand, showed 66 per cent of respondents did not want Prayuth to lead any political party of his own, citing his failure to solve critical issues and a lack of leadership. Over 58 per cent of 1,317 people polled said they wanted him to step down.
But Prayuth’s power depends on a larger, more “well-planned” strategy, a result of the lessons learned from past coups, Titipol said.
“The establishment is careful not to cross the line, unlike the way they usually exercised power after coups in the past,” he said. “They try not to create tension from within and outside the country so they can stay in power for as long as possible.”
