After 50 years, does Asean still matter?

Unless member states can put their common causes above their narrow internal political interests, global powers such as China, India and the US will continue to run roughshod over their agenda

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Riot policemen and protesters clash as they try to march to the Asean Summit venue in Manila. Photo: AFP

Published: 9:31am, 26 Dec 2017Updated: 9:31am, 26 Dec 2017

Does the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) still matter after half a century? Against the backdrop of global and regional politics, with security and economic architecture oscillating unpredictably in search of a new equilibrium, this question takes on greater importance today than it did when the organisation was founded in 1967 at the height of the cold war.

In the next decade, Asean’s destiny depends on how adroitly it positions its norms, values, and purpose in an increasingly uncertain world, where an Asia dominated by China cannot be foreclosed.

Chinese-controlled North Island, part of the Paracel Islands group in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

The South China Sea test

In particular, the South China Sea disputes are a severe test of Asean’s unity, purpose and resolve. China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all have competing claims over the strategic waterway where an estimated US$5 trillion in global trade passes through annually. It is also home to rich fishing grounds and an indeterminate wealth of oil, gas and other natural resources in the deep seabed.

China insists on bilateral deals with other nations, leveraging on its size and clout. This can complicate sovereignty disputes given the web of overlapping territorial claims. The importance of a multilateral agreement cannot be understated, and whether Asean member states can think and act collectively is an ongoing challenge.

Asean turns 50? Wake me when it’s over

Earlier this year, a framework agreement between China and Asean on the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea marked a significant step forward in cooling tensions in the region, where the test of wills and military gamesmanship have often threatened to boil over.