Turkey election: Can a divided opposition wrest power from Erdogan after 20 years?
- Many Turkish citizens would like new policies to lift Turkey out of one of the most severe economic crises it has experienced in the last two decades
- There are significant differences in each party’s position, leading to questions of how much change can be expected even if Erdogan is defeated
Turkey’s main opposition parties have made a range of promises that include boosting the economy, democratising the political system, separating religion from state affairs and improving the country’s ties with the West.
However, it is becoming increasingly clear that there are significant differences in the positions of each party in the opposition coalition. Serious questions remain as to how much change can be expected, even if Erdogan is defeated.
A divided opposition
Turkey’s largest opposition party is the Republican People’s Party (the Turkish acronym for which is CHP). Formed by the founder of Turkey’s secular republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, this party remains loyal to the ideology of Turkish nationalism and is considered to be in the centre-left of politics.
CHP has aligned itself with other nationalist and conservative forces in a coalition called the Nation Alliance, whose combined shares of the vote might be enough to defeat Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (also known as the AK Party).
While there is widespread scepticism about polling in Turkey, the most recent surveys have showed that CHP’s position is relatively strong in the presidential race. In the parliamentary elections, however, Erdogan’s conservative policies seem to be serving the AK Party well.
This is a problem for the opposition, which has not done enough to counter the conservative politics of the ruling alliance.
The leader of the opposition is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whom the Nation Alliance has nominated as its presidential candidate. This is despite Kilicdaroglu’s relatively low credibility with the public, as compared to other CHP figures.
However, other nationalist and left-leaning forces with significant public support have decided to stay outside the Nation Alliance.
On the nationalist side, the opposition candidate for the 2018 presidential elections (Muharrem Ince) was set to be in the running again on behalf of his new Homeland Party until he pulled out at the last minute. Ultra-nationalists are also being represented by the Ancestral Alliance coalition, led by Sinan Ogan
Parties on the left, meanwhile, have only been able to run in the parliamentary elections. Potential candidates from Turkey’s large Kurdish minority have faced particular difficulty in nominating themselves for the presidential race. Many of them have been imprisoned on charges of being linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Their only option is to back Kilicdaroglu, which some have done.
Erdogan is, of course, the AK Party’s candidate for president. The party has been in power since 2002 when it won a majority of seats in parliamentary elections for the first time. Erdogan became prime minister in 2003, and then won the presidential election in 2014 before being reelected in 2018. If he is elected, this would be his final term.
The AK Party is conservative with Islamist origins, and currently in a coalition with the farr-right Nationalist Movement that has become fragmented and unpopular. Despite this unpopular coalition, Erdogan himself has managed to maintain somewhat favourable ratings with the public.
No checks on the president
Many observers blame the referendum for removing crucial checks on presidential power.
Erdogan has yet to fully normalise relations with these states, as they are still wary of Turkey’s regional influence under the AK Party’s rule. Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a middle power with strategic influence in the Middle East and the wider region, particularly after the Arab spring. This influence is unlikely to fade soon, regardless of the elections.
So, will a change in Turkish leadership transform Turkey and the region?
The answer is not simple. But it is likely much will stay the same. Many key institutions in Turkey like the parliament, judicial system and press have lost their independence during the Erdogan era.
Erdogan’s party has become very influential in both domestic and foreign policy, which means his footprint will not disappear immediately, even if he is not re-elected. Rather, Erdogan will have a lasting social, economic and political legacy for both Turkey and its neighbours.