Trump beware: Pakistan’s luck playing China card is turning
When the bin Laden raid sent US-Pakistan ties into a tailspin, Beijing rebuffed the advances of Islamabad. But six years on, as relations head south once again, China’s calculus has changed
At the lowest ebb of the last annus horribilis for US-Pakistan ties in 2011, soon after the special forces raid that killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan brandished the China card: if relations with Washington were going into a tailspin, Islamabad would turn to Beijing instead. They were rebuffed. China discreetly made it clear to both the United States and Pakistan that the “all-weather friendship” was already as deep as they wanted it to be and that Islamabad needed to focus on fixing its relations with Washington.
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Part of a damaged US helicopter left at the scene of the Navy Seal raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad. Photo: Reuters
With President Donald Trump’s announcement that the new US South Asia strategy will involve tightening the screws on Pakistan if it doesn’t address militant safe havens within its borders, the early indications are that the China card will be played again. This time, however, Pakistan may have more luck. The relationship with Beijing is in a very different place now and while China will take its usual care not to get caught in the middle, it is likely to provide a stronger backdrop of support than it did the last time US-Pakistan tensions escalated.
Some things haven’t changed. While it might seem that Beijing would see any deterioration of Islamabad’s ties with Washington as an opportunity to exploit, China has long perceived greater advantage in a robust US-Pakistan relationship. Given Pakistan’s most important role for China has been as a counterbalance to India, it wants Islamabad to benefit from solid US economic and military support. Healthy ties with Washington are seen by Beijing to place implicit limits on the scope of US-India relations. They also ensure that Pakistan doesn’t turn into yet another point of tension in US-China relations or act as an impediment to Sino-Pakistani security ties.
Pakistanis protest against the US military raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad. Photo: EPA
China should be positively disposed towards elements of the new US strategy in Afghanistan too. Beijing will have been relieved that there is no precipitate military pull-out. Its concerns about an open-ended US troop presence will be mitigated by the fact the US has kept reconciliation with the Taliban alive as the political end goal, which China shares. Beijing also wants to see a stable settlement in place to ensure that Afghanistan cannot become a safe haven for Uygur militant groups or a threat to its growing strategic interests in the region.
In principle, then, there is still a basis for continued US-China cooperation on Afghanistan, and Beijing’s first instinct will almost certainly be to see if there is scope to square the circle between US and Pakistani interests rather than risking a slide into mutual antipathy. An agreed path towards peace talks with the Taliban will probably continue to be China’s main focus, even if the near-term prospects of negotiations remain poor. But if the needle proves impossible to thread, it is clear that Beijing’s interests in Pakistan have shifted markedly in recent years, and Beijing cannot be expected to react the same way that it did in the Abbottabad aftermath.
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain in Islamabad. Photo: AFP
The most tangible manifestation of the shift is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which Chinese officials have described as the flagship for President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative.
