Will Trump cause Southeast Asian nations to pivot to China?
Southeast Asian countries prompted by erratic US foreign policy to embrace Beijing will be required to toe the one-China line, but may expect a quid pro quo in the South China Sea
For years, a resurgent China has generously ladled out economic aid and loans to its Southeast Asian neighbours with the hope of prising the region from the United States’ tight embrace.
The charm offensive has had its fair share of hits and misses. The resource-rich region – bereft of major powers – deftly managed the largesse of outside players for maximum economic gain, even as some countries maintained cautious distances with Beijing over the South China Sea dispute.
But observers say regional governments may soon make a more pronounced pivot to China as they worry about US President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to Asia and his erratic foreign policy – on display after he questioned the one-China principle last week and incurred the ire of Chinese leaders.
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Asia watchers say the writing was already on the wall for such a shift before Trump stormed to victory on November 8, as the world watched him campaign on a platform that championed protectionism, sabre rattling with China, and killing a Pacific-Rim trade pact.
The Philippines, a US treaty ally, and Malaysia, which has hosted US spy planes, in October struck major defence and business deals with Beijing after their leaders made high-profile visits to the Chinese capital.
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But Southeast Asia’s jostle to line up with China does not mean its ruling elites – many ensconced in power for decades – are ready to completely disavow the American goodwill they have benefited from since the end of the second world war.