Why Duterte’s U.S. split could help Islamic State rise in the Philippines

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Rescue workers gather the bodies of victims of an explosion at a night market in Davao City in the Philippines on September 3, 2016. The Abu Sayyaf group claimed responsibility for the deadly blast. Photo: AFP

Published: 2:15pm, 27 Oct 2016Updated: 3:22pm, 28 Oct 2016

President Rodrigo Duterte’s calculated estrangement from the United States could have a profound impact on the Southeast Asian region’s struggle against Islamic terrorism at a time when cooperation appears to be deepening among extremist groups loyal to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

ISIS may be in its death throes in Iraq as a government-led task force closes in on its Mosul headquarters, but Institute of Policy Analysis (IPAC) director Sidney Jones said it could only increase the incentive for IS loyalists to commit acts of violence at home.

“ISIS has deepened cooperation among extremist groups in Southeast Asia, but most law enforcement agencies retain a strongly national orientation, without in-house expertise on groups outside their own borders,” she said in her latest report, which focused almost exclusively on developments in Mindanao.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands after a signing ceremony held in Beijing, China last week. Photo: Reuters

Jones said an accurate assessment of the security threat in Indonesia or Malaysia may partly depend on understanding developments in the southern Philippines, which is seen by the ISIS leadership as an extension of its caliphate in Southeast Asia.

While the Muslim-dominated western provinces of Mindanao have not been formally declared as a province, or wilayat, Jones said the extremist organisation has endorsed Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon as amir for Southeast Asia, and hundreds of Southeast Asian fighters in Syria have pledged their loyalty to him.