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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
An employee debugs the AI-powered live-streaming machines at a Rexso workshop on December 8 in Huangshan in China’s Anhui province. Photo: VCG via Getty Images
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

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Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

Despite years of progress, the cryptocurrency is still in a vulnerable spot halfway between pure speculation and institutional adoption.

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Eric Trump, executive vice-president of the Trump Organisation, attends the Bitcoin Asia conference, in Hong Kong, on August 29. Photo: Reuters
Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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A man checks the latest stock exchange data on a computer screen at his shop in Shanghai on October 30. Photo: EPA
Trade

Macroscope | Exports no longer enough to lift Asia out of ‘middle-income trap’

Developing nations are being urged to boost domestic demand and mutual trade to drive growth, but key factors like population ageing must also be addressed.

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United States

Macroscope | Has Trump 2.0 really been a boon to stock markets and the economy?

Although asset prices performed strongly this year and there has been no recession, Trump’s second term is a Rubicon-crossing moment for the US and global economy.

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Trade

Macroscope | Asia’s trading powerhouses are more Trump-proof than many feared

High US tariffs not only did not cripple export-oriented economies like South Korea, thanks to the AI boom, but they also pushed policymakers to embark on reforms.

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A staff member of the Inter-university Semiconductor Research Centre at Seoul National University in Seoul at work on April 30. South Korea recorded its highest ever semiconductor exports in September, official data showed on October 1, despite growing pressure from US tariffs and other restrictions on the crucial sector. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons fears of an AI-fuelled stock market bubble are overdone

While many believe the stock market is in an AI-induced bubble, there are factors that paint a more optimistic picture.

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on October 22. Just 10 companies account for over half the rise in the value of US stocks. Photo: Reuters
China inflation

Macroscope | Forget inflation, deflation poses bigger risk to Asia’s economies

While Asia has not had inflation worries for some time, its economic future has become more closely tied to China’s, with all that entails.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Global uncertainty driving gold prices higher despite bubble fears

Even with stock markets surging, the price of gold is hitting new records as investors seek out stability.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Why the cost of buying economic growth is destined to rise

The apparent resilience of the global economy in the face of a series of shocks comes amid dangerously high debt levels.

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A woman walks past signs displaying prices in US dollars in Caracas, Venezuela, on June 2. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | 4 reasons Japan’s yen safe haven trade is a distant memory

While the Japanese currency’s reputation as a safe haven was always overblown, the stability that supported it is now a thing of the past.

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People walk in a shopping area in Tokyo’s Shinjuku on September 11. Japan is experiencing cost-push inflation – price rises driven by the weak yen and exacerbated by the cost of imported raw materials, food and energy. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Tide may finally be turning in China’s battle against deflation

With economic indicators offering reasons to hope, the only question is how quickly and decisively Beijing can revive domestic demand.

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Cryptocurrency

Macroscope | In the crypto vs gold struggle, new battle lines are being drawn

The finance world is in flux, with stablecoin issuer Tether investing heavily in the metal it has been trying to usurp as a primary means of exchange.

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Diplomacy

Macroscope | Shanghai spirit for new world order needs to be matched by the West

SCO summit’s vision can’t be implemented without the requisite monetary and financial systems in place. The West must play a role if the world is not to fragment into blocs.

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President Xi Jinping makes a speech at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit 2025 at the Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Centre in Tianjin on September 1. Photo: Xinhua
United States

Macroscope | Why China is the only actor standing against Trump’s radical agenda

Beijing has taken advantage of weaknesses in Trump’s agenda and forced him to back down while others give him a free pass.

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China stock market

Macroscope | Why investors need not fear bubble in Chinese stock market

While there is a disconnect between China’s ailing economy and its buoyant stock market, years of bearishness are only now dissipating.

Japan

Macroscope | World can’t afford Japan adding to infrastructure project wars

Tokyo’s recently announced Indian Ocean and Africa economic zone initiative could put it on course to overlap and clash with Beijing.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, left, greets Cameroon’s Prime Minister Joseph Ngute at their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the second day of the ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development, in Yokohama, Kanagawa prefecture, south of Tokyo, on August 21. Photo: AFP
United States

Macroscope | 4 reasons Trump has pushed his luck on tariffs too far

The first four months of Trump’s tariffs have been a political coup, yet many vulnerabilities of the US economy have been underestimated.

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Activists protest against US President Donald Trump and his trade policies for India outside the US embassy in Kolkata on August 13. In an escalation of trade tensions between the United States and India, Trump announced additional tariffs of 25 per cent on Indian goods which would bring the total to 50 per cent. Photo: EPA
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why world must heed boy crying wolf over risk of financial crisis

Contrary to markets’ exuberance, record levels of borrowing and the growth of shadow banking pose a significant risk of a financial crisis.

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US-India relations

Macroscope | Has India really become Trump’s top target in Asia?

India might be too close to Russia for Trump’s liking, but the challenges it poses to the US pale in comparison to those posed by China.

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Climate change

Macroscope | Why force of law is world’s best hope for beating climate change

We need radical solutions reinforced by legal statutes to bolster the fight against climate change and make polluters pay.

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Cars make their way east out of Los Angeles during the evening rush hour on January 25, 2024. The US Environmental Protection Agency on July 29 issued a proposal to rescind a foundational scientific finding that underpins the federal government’s authority to limit greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles and, more broadly, address climate change. Photo: AFP
South Korea

Macroscope | Does Seoul’s stock market boom signal the end of the ‘Korea discount’?

Long-overdue corporate governance reforms and efforts to empower retail investors have created bullish sentiment around South Korean stocks.

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Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on July 31. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Economies are left looking for safety as animal spirits run wild

The world is crying out for systemic reforms to markets that heap investment in fashionable sectors instead of where it is needed the most.

Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | How mainland capital flight is reviving Hong Kong market’s mojo

While capital can be volatile, Hong Kong’s role as the conduit between Chinese and global finance puts its financial sector in a sweet spot.

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