Reeling in Chelsea is possible for Pellegrini’s Manchester City

Champions should conquer Lancashire side and Chelsea must tighten up as they host Saints

Nick Pulford

Published: 8:30pm, 13 Mar 2015

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Declaring an early winner in the English Premier League title race is often a dangerous thing to do, but the finishing line may be out of reach for Manchester City unless they make significant inroads into Chelsea’s lead before the end of March.

Here’s a scenario that could revive City’s flagging hopes: if they win tonight at Burnley and Chelsea only draw tomorrow in their home match with Southampton, and then City win again next Saturday at home to West Brom, that would put the two sides level on points, albeit with Chelsea holding two games in hand. It is not an unrealistic prospect and City really need to hope that they can build up that kind of pressure before it is too late.

The finishing line may be out of reach for Manchester City unless they make significant inroads into Chelsea’s lead

As it stands, City can reach 88 points if they win all their remaining matches from now to the end of the season. But it is a sobering thought that Chelsea finished with 95 and 91 points in Jose Mourinho’s two previous title-winning seasons and they can still reach a 90-plus total, although their current rate puts them on target for 89. As well as an upturn in their own form, City clearly need some slip-ups from Chelsea.

Chelsea's form has tailed off with them facing a difficult clash with Southampton this weekend. Photo: Reuters

Realistic obstacles for Chelsea are starting to run out, but Southampton undoubtedly have the ability to trip up the leaders. Only seven teams have taken any points off Chelsea this season and the Saints are one of them, with their 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in December. That was the start of a good run for Southampton against the elite teams, quickly followed by victories over Arsenal and Manchester United, and they remain a serious threat to any opponent even though they lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool in their latest match in that category.

Ronald Koeman's Southampton side have won 15 of the 19 league games in which they have scored; a goal at Stamford Bridge will give them a real chance of boosting their Champions League hopes. Photo: AFP

Chelsea have managed only one win in their last six home games (in 90 minutes) in all competitions, with some cracks starting to show in their defence, and they will need to tighten up against Southampton.

Ronald Koeman’s side have won 15 of the 19 league games in which they have scored, losing only two, and they are hard to stop if they get in front – Southampton average a league-leading 2.87 points per game when scoring first (Chelsea’s average, by comparison, is 2.48).

The strongest form lines point to Chelsea but a positive result for Southampton would not be as big a surprise as the odds suggest.

Chelsea have managed only one win in their last six home games in all competitions, with some cracks starting to show in their defence

Given that City may need maximum points for the rest of the season to have a chance of retaining their title, failure to win against Burnley tonight is unthinkable. Like Chelsea, however, they only drew the reverse fixture against this weekend’s opponents (2-2 at home in December) and will have to be on their guard.

Burnley are only picking up scraps at the moment, however, with just six points from a possible 33 since their last meeting with City. The bet here is City to cover the handicap, which is more confidently selected than Chelsea to do the same against Southampton.

The big clash in the battle for the Champions League places is Manchester United v Tottenham tomorrow night and it is interesting to see how far the stats have moved against United in recent meetings.

Crystal Palace are favourite4s in their home match with QPR, a London derby. Photo: AFP

In the Alex Ferguson era, this was invariably a banker for United home and away, but they have not won any of the last five meetings (three draws and two defeats). Both losses were at Old Trafford, which is perhaps not surprising as Tottenham are a highly effective force on the road and even more so now with Harry Kane, who has scored in his last six league away games. If Kane finds the net again, he will equal the Premier League record set by Robin van Persie for scoring in seven consecutive away games.

There are doubts about both defences, which might produce an exciting match, but makes the result difficult to call. United have a good home record, but overall they are quite reliant on a clean sheet against the better sides – only one win in four when conceding against big-six teams this season.

In the Alex Ferguson era, this was invariably a banker for United home and away, but they have not won any of the last five meetings with Tottenham

Tottenham usually score on the road (their only blank in the league was at Chelsea) but a clean sheet is a rarity (just two in 13 away games). With that risk accepted, the visitors are the best longshot of the weekend.

Crystal Palace look decent odds at home to QPR, having won two out of three against teams below them since Alan Pardew took charge, while Aston Villa rate a decent bet on the handicap at Sunderland now Tim Sherwood has got them scoring.

Villa’s form is solid when they get on the scoresheet and Sunderland have won only twice when conceding.

TOP FIVE BETS:

Crystal Palace home win
Decent bet against Premier League’s worst away team

Aston Villa on handicap
Worth chancing as they will be hard to beat if they score

Bolton home win
Home form remains strong under Neil Lennon

Watford home win
Excellent record against the strugglers

Augsburg home win
Good odds against sliding Mainz

SHORTLIST:

Tottenham, Frankfurt, Hoffenheim.

9
Defeats in a row for West Ham against Arsenal

12
Matches without a clean sheet for Burnley

14
Wins out of 15 for Southampton when scoring first

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