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Everton's Philip Jagielka (left) fights for the ball against West Ham United's Carlton Cole. The Toffees are struggling to keep their heads above a downward spiral to the relegation zone. Photo: AP
Opinion
Nick Pulford
Nick Pulford

You Bet: Everton could sink into relegation dogfight

Toffees need to overcome sticky patch if they are to avoid joining Premiership strugglers

Nine teams are realistically involved in the relegation dogfight in the English Premier League and this is a crucial weekend, with six in action against each other.

The other three all play in-form teams from the top five, which means any points gained this weekend could lead to significant shifts in position.

The surprise team in trouble are Everton, who finished fifth in their first season under Roberto Martinez, but are 13th with barely half the points total they had accumulated at the same stage 12 months ago.

This season [Everton] have failed to keep a clean sheet in six matches against the big six and again they have managed only two points

Everton are bottom of the six-match form table and were the only Premier League side to lose all four games over the Christmas and New Year period. Their position seems likely to get worse today when they host Manchester City.

There are two chief reasons for Everton's predicament. One is their involvement in the Europa League, which for many teams tends to be a drain on performance and can lead to a loss of confidence that makes recovery difficult even during the mid-winter break from European competition.

That happened to Swansea last season, solved only by sacking Michael Laudrup as manager, and Everton have found themselves with similar problems.

Sunderland's Santiago Vergini (centre) and Sebastian Coates (left) vie with Leeds United's Mirco Antenucci. Sunderland host Liverpool on Saturday night. Photo: AFP

There is talk of Martinez's job being at stake and certainly he is under pressure to prove he can solve their defensive weakness, which is the other main reason for Everton's slide down the table.

Everton have not kept a clean sheet in their last 10 league games, leaving them with only three shutouts in 20 this season. Leicester are the only other team with such a low number of clean sheets.

Martinez was fortunate to inherit a team built on strong defence by David Moyes and arguably that gave him the perfect platform to add a dashing brand of football that won Everton many admirers last season.

But those defensive principles and eventually the personnel have to be refreshed and from the outside it seems Martinez might be failing to do that.

The same criticism could be levelled against Arsene Wenger, who added continental flair to a strong English rearguard in his early days at Arsenal, but has latterly failed to build such a strong defence again.

Strong defence is certainly one of the main planks of a good result against a top team like Manchester City. Last season Everton kept four clean sheets at home against the big six teams, taking 10 points out of 12 in those games, and their only win on the road in that category (1-0 at Manchester United) was also founded on a shutout.

Results suffered badly when Everton conceded, with just two points from seven games against the big six in those circumstances. This season they have failed to keep a clean sheet in six matches against the big six and again they have managed only two points.

Martinez's team seem unlikely to improve until the defence is tightened up and, with Manchester City in good scoring form even without their main strikers, the champions look a banker bet.

In the same category are Liverpool, whose improvement continued with an unbeaten run over Christmas (two wins and two draws). They have to find a way past Sunderland, which they failed to do in the 0-0 draw at Anfield a month ago, but they will have a good chance if they can find the net against the low-scoring hosts.

The other struggling team who play one of the big six are Crystal Palace, who are at home to Tottenham. This is Palace's first league game under new boss Alan Pardew and even a point would be a good result, with Tottenham improving fast under Mauricio Pochettino.

It is interesting to note that, from the point when their first three months were up, both Pochettino at Spurs and Louis van Gaal at Manchester United have achieved marked improvement in results - better even than Chelsea in that period.

Since mid-November, Manchester City have had the best form, but United are second and Tottenham third. That gives Tottenham a strong chance against Palace, but United's excellent home form makes them a better bet, even though they face stronger opposition when they host Southampton tomorrow.

In the big relegation matches, Leicester at home to low-scoring Aston Villa could be worth chancing at the odds now their results have started to pick up.

It is tempting to go for Burnley, too, with visitors QPR having failed to take a single point on the road, but the hosts' low-scoring habits are a worry.

Tottenham, Manchester United, Watford

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Everton could sink into relegation dogfight
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