But the reason new models are needed is that states are accelerating plans to ease restrictions far more quickly than anticipated – or public health officials advise.

Coronavirus on track to kill 1.3 per cent of infected in US, study finds

The IHME said they made the revisions based on gaining a week's worth of new data including daily reports of Covid-19 deaths and infections. However, “formal plans to ease social distancing policies and testing rates [are] in turn having different effects on state-level Covid-19 predictions”.

Similar trends are being seen across the country. According to the revised model released on Sunday, California saw only the fifth largest increase in forecast deaths, trailing the states of Pennsylvania, Illinois, Arizona and Florida.

The number of new daily cases in the United States is lower than its peak in mid-April – though according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, it is still more than 20,000 daily. And in many states – Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas and Maryland, among them – daily reported cases are still on the rise.

Along with the more worrying trends, there have been some pleasant surprises. In densely populated hotspots like New York, New Jersey and Michigan – some of the hardest-hit states in the country – cases have been declining faster than anticipated.

Still, the picture the new forecasts paints bears little resemblance to the optimism coming out of Washington and many governors’ mansions. Across the country, communities are rushing to reopen, relaxing stay-at-home restrictions and reopening closed businesses – even as cases continue to rise, testing trails far behind expert recommendations, shortages of medical supplies continue, and not a single state has met all the benchmarks health officials have set out as essential before reopening can proceed.

Speaking to The Los Angeles Times on Friday, Barbara Ferrer, director of Los Angeles County’s department of public health, was adamant: “The virus has not changed. It can still spread easily, and it can still result in serious illness and death.”

California, America’s most populous state, now averages 1,859 new cases and almost 72 new deaths daily. But its situation is complicated by the fact that, statewide, the rates of cases and deaths have remained relatively flat. That’s mostly because rural counties have very few cases, which obscures the continuing rise of cases in densely populated areas like Los Angeles.

By Monday morning, California was a handful away from 68,000 confirmed cases and had suffered 2,719 deaths statewide, with 1,163 cases and 25 new deaths reported on Sunday alone. More than half of all deaths have been in Los Angeles County.

Still the state is going ahead with tentative reopening with Governor Gavin Newsom boasting on Monday that 70 per cent of the state’s economy was up and running again. Factories across the state are operating under modified restrictions; some counties have allowed retail stores to open offering curbside pickup; and more of the state’s parks and beaches have been opened to recreation.

In Texas, three days after Governor Greg Abbott gave his state the go-ahead to reopen small businesses including barbershops, beauty parlours and tanning salons, the city of Dallas reported its highest seven-day increase in coronavirus cases since the outbreak began, with 250 new cases and eight more deaths.

Nowhere has the divide between the reported cases and official resoluteness been more stark than in the White House itself. When US President Donald Trump’s personal valet and Vice-President Mike Pence’s press secretary both tested positive for coronavirus, it compelled Dr Robert R. Redfield, the CDC director; Dr Stephen Hahn, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration; and Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases into self-quarantine for two weeks.

Even so, many other White House employees, who now receive daily testing, on Monday were still in their West Wing offices, a crowded warren of cubicles where social distancing is effectively impossible. Also on Monday, a memo directed staffers – though not the president – to wear face-coverings while in the West Wing, though they were not required to wear them at their own desks.

In Washington DC, the percentage of positive tests is nearly twice what experts have said is the highest possible number allowable to permit reopening of businesses.

By Monday morning, Washington had 6,389 confirmed cases and 328 deaths – a higher death rate than most states. The nation’s capital reported 19 deaths on Friday, a record for a single day.

Despite the news of more deaths nationwide, swelling cases in DC, and infections among his own staff, President Trump tweeted Monday morning: “Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere. Big progress being made!”

Also on Monday, California Governor Newsom tried to strike a more measured tone: “We are entering a phase in this recovery where … we’re going to have plenty … to debate.

“There’s just one constant,” Newsom added, “and that’s the vigilance guided by public health and guided by the data.”