Jeb Bush: No longer the Republicans' 'Mr Inevitable' for the White House as Trump's attacks take toll
Bush struggling to gain meaningful foothold in crowded Republican field as his brother's legacy as president comes under fire from front runner.
What happens when a candidate whose greatest strength is the sense of inevitability surrounding him becomes something short of inevitable?
That's the question that is facing former Florida Governor Jeb Bush's presidential candidacy amid only so-so polling numbers nationally and in early-voting states. And there's the Donald Trump factor.
Bush's campaign was built to look a lot like his older brother's successful bid for the White House in 2000. Huge amounts of fundraising and the best staff money can buy, sprinkled with establishment blessings where deemed necessary.
But it has become quite clear over the past few months that not only is Jeb Bush not George W. but that the GOP of 2015 is not the Republican Party of 2000.
Jeb's demeanour has turned out to be a poor fit for a Republican Party - and, more specifically, a Republican base - that wants confrontation at all times and on all fronts. Trump, the front runner, carries himself like a grade school bully - all strength, bluster and hair. He calls anyone who dares to oppose him a classless loser who doesn't know what it takes to make America great again.
In the face of that sort of onslaught - Trump's latest broadside is the oblique suggestion that George W. Bush may bear some responsibility for the terrorist attacks of 9/11 - Jeb has been left flummoxed.
Candidate Bush has adopted a simple refrain in defence of his brother: "He kept us safe."
His advisers have been considering how and whether they can use George W. in Jeb's campaign while still maintaining Jeb's image as his own man apart from the Bush dynasty.
Though Jeb's foreign policy team includes many of his brother's advisers, the former Florida governor has had some trouble talking about the handling of the aftermath of September 11, including the Iraq War, wiretapping, and interrogation techniques many refer to as torture.
And Trump's all-out attack is likely to further test these vulnerabilities. In a Saturday interview with Trump suggested that if Bush had a more stringent immigration policy, he could have kept the perpetrators of the attacks out of the US in the first place.
"Do I blame George Bush? I only say that he was the president at the time, and you know, you could say: 'The buck stops here,' " Trump said in the interview.
Republican strategists, especially those who were close to George Bush's administration, believe Trump's attacks will backfire.
Read more: Did George W. Bush keep us safe? Trump suggests ex-president to blame for 9/11 attacks
"It is a huge miscalculation, on Donald Trump's part, of the appetite of Republican primary voters, to believe that somehow [Bush] is to blame for 9/11," said Katie Packer Gage, who directed advertising for George Bush's re-election campaign.
"To Republican primary voters, it's simple: He kept us safe because he was tough, he had an immediate response."
Still, polling numbers don't lie. Trump leads most polls of the 15-strong Republican field from Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who also has no experience in elected office. Carly Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard chief executive who has fought one losing campaign for the US Senate, has also shown strongly.
In a Fox News poll on the Republican field, Trump led on 24 per cent, from Carson on 23 per cent. Ted Cruz was third with 10 per cent and Fiorina scored 5 per cent, enough for sixth place behind Marco Rubio (9 per cent) and Bush on 8 per cent.
What Bush needs to find - and fast - is a compelling reason why undecided Republicans need to be on his side. Without that, all the money, endorsements and last-name credibility in the world won't win him the GOP nomination next year.
