UN says world population heading for 11 billion, may not stabilise
The world population may grow larger than previously estimated, reaching 11 billion people by century's end, according to a UN-led analysis.
That would mean two billion more people on earth than expected by 2100, largely due to high birth rates in Africa, said the report published on Thursday in the US journal .
"The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around seven billion, would go up to nine billion and level off or probably decline," said co-author Adrian Raftery, professor of statistics and of sociology at the University of Washington.
"We found there's a 70 per cent probability the world population will not stabilise this century," he added.
The study uses the most recent United Nations population data, released in July, and improved statistical methods.
Previous estimates typically relied on expert opinions about how life expectancy and fertility rates would change over time.
The bulk of the growth was anticipated in Africa, where the population is expected to rise from one billion today to four billion by the end of the century.
"There is an 80 per cent chance that the population in Africa at the end of the century will be between 3.5 and 5.1 billion people," said the study.
While Africa was expected to boom in size, some populations were expected to peak or shrink, the study said.
Asia, now at 4.4 billion, is projected to peak at around five billion people in 2050 and then start to decline.
"Population, which had sort of fallen off the world's agenda, remains a very important issue," Raftery said.
