Then came the first round of the government’s digital consumption voucher scheme, under which each resident was given HK$5,000 (US$642) in their Octopus, AlipayHK, Tap & Go or WeChat Pay HK accounts, to spend on goods, meals and transport.

“When the first HK$2,000 was disbursed in August, business went crazy and increased by at least 10 to 20 per cent,” said Chui, who chairs Kam Kee Holdings and runs a chain of 44 restaurants. “The restaurants’ occupancy rate was about 70 to 80 per cent even during off-peak hours.”

Now, with Hong Kong in the midst of its fifth wave of infections, Chui said he hoped Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po would take pity on the catering industry and roll out another round of the vouchers – maybe as much as HK$10,000 per resident – when he unveiled the final budget of this administration’s five-year term.

Since the finance chief opened up the public consultation period last month to collect views on his next budget, various business, professional and political groups have called on the accountant-turned-minister to reprise the consumption voucher scheme.

They said the scheme last year had helped to boost the city’s retail sector, and encouraged more people to adopt electronic payment platforms.

A new round of vouchers would help boost Hong Kong’s economy, vaccination rate and public sentiment, they argued.

“This year marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland … HK$10,000 of celebratory consumption vouchers could be a catalyst to speed up the economic recovery,” said lawmaker Jeffrey Lam Kin-fung, of the Business and Professionals Alliance.

Those joining in the call included leaders of the Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), the Liberal Party, a group of 19 politically unaffiliated legislators, and the city’s largest pro-establishment party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB).

“We are still not sure whether the fifth wave of coronavirus infections can be put under control in the coming weeks, so we must plan for the next few months, such as April or May, when the new vouchers can be rolled out,” DAB lawmaker Vincent Cheng Wing-shun said.

But New People’s Party chairwoman Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, an adviser in the city leader’s de facto cabinet, the Executive Council, disagreed, suggesting Paul Chan should save money for a rainy day.

“The voucher scheme only gave a limited boost to the economy,” she said. “The government’s reserves have plummeted to about HK$900 billion … We must save money in case we need it for the anti-epidemic fund and the unemployed. Gone are the days when we could sit on a large reserve.”

After running up a deficit of HK$40.1 billion in the 2003-04 financial year, the government recorded surpluses for 15 years running, with its fiscal reserves ballooning to HK$1.17 trillion by early 2019.

But all that changed in 2019-20, when months of social unrest followed by the start of the coronavirus pandemic left the government with a deficit of HK$10.6 billion for the financial year.

The situation worsened the following year, as the city’s economy contracted and the government shelled out hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of pandemic relief measures, pushing the annual deficit to HK$257.6 billion, and driving fiscal reserves down to HK$902.7 billion.

A year ago, Chan forecast that while the city’s economy would grow in 2021-22, the government would run a deficit for the third financial year in a row, estimating a shortfall of HK$101.6 billion, predicting the trend to continue until at least 2025-26.

Analysts initially believed the adverse financial situation would render the government unable to spend much on relief measures, but writing on his official blog on January 16, Chan indicated that this year’s deficit would be much lower than the HK$101.6 billion he initially predicted.

“The revenue from land sales was much higher than our estimates. Stamp duty revenue was also better than expected because transactions in property and stock markets remained active,” he explained.

Asked if a smaller-than-expected deficit meant Chan could roll out another round of vouchers, Hui Ching, a research director at the policy think tank Hong Kong Zhi Ming Institute, said it was more complicated than that.

“The property market was not hard hit in the pandemic, and those with assets suffered much less than those less well-off. Under these circumstances, the government should be more targeted in helping those struggling,” he said.

“The HK$5,000 scheme last year can be justified because we just recovered from the fourth wave, but we are now more than two years into the pandemic.”

Economist Simon Lee Siu-po, co-director of the international business and Chinese enterprise programme at Chinese University, also said the positive figures did not mean Chan should give out another round of vouchers, noting the economic boost from the previous round “was not that big”.

“Giving out money will make people happier … but the finance chief also needs to widen the city’s tax base and address other deep-seated issues, otherwise these problems will always be there,” he said.

Iris Pang, chief Greater China economist at financial services firm ING, warned against exaggerating the advantages of the vouchers.

“Japan and Taiwan’s experience showed us that when the government repeats the measure, the benefits will become smaller and smaller,” she said.

But Eugene Yeung, convenor of the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants’ budget proposals subcommittee, said the government could give out vouchers while still adopting targeted relief measures and addressing deep-seated issues at the same time.

“It’s important for the administration to be financially healthy and stable, and use money prudently, so when residents need relief measures, officials should consider options that are universal, as well as targeted ones,” he said.

“Our institute has repeatedly urged the government to review Hong Kong’s narrow tax base and consider introducing new tax. It ran into the red in recent years because it’s too reliant on profit tax, salary tax and land sale.”

An insider told the Post that when Chan went about drafting the budget, he would have to assess how the money could be used in the most effective manner.

“The vouchers were very well received last year, as the pandemic was under control … Some question whether the vouchers would be as effective this year when the latest wave of infections has yet to subside,” the insider said.