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Coldest day in 59 years unexpected: Hong Kong meteorologists describe forecast challenges as imperfect science

Observatory and other weather experts respond to criticism for underestimating the severity of the weekend cold snap

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Visitors at Tai Mo Shan got covered with ice thanks to sub-zero temperatures there on Sunday. Photo: Felix Wong

Forecasts for extreme weather systems are never 100 per cent accurate and not simply the work of looking at statistics, local meteorologists emphasised.

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The point came as the Hong Kong Observatory was criticised on social media for underestimating the severity of the weekend cold snap.

Minimum temperatures Sunday dropped to 3.1 degrees on Sunday afternoon – more than five degrees lower than what was originally predicted and the city’s lowest reading since 1957.

READ MORE: Hong Kong shivers through its coldest day since 1957: kindergartens, primary schools closed today

Only last week, the Observatory stated that its grasp of Hong Kong weather was much better than overseas bodies or unofficial forecasters on the internet, as US and European-based systems indicated temperatures would be far lower than the Observatory’s “six to eight degree” estimate.

Clarence Fong Chi-kong, a meteorologist at the Macau-based UN ESCAP World Meteorological Organisation typhoon committee, said the discrepancy was probably caused by an unforeseen rainband moving over southern China on Sunday morning.

READ MORE: Nowhere else to go: Hong Kong working parents take children to school despite cold weather suspension

“They were not able to forecast this, which eventually brought wetter and colder weather to the region,” said Fong, in charge of a website called Weather Underground of Hong Kong, an unofficial alternative weather forecaster operating online.

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