Hong Kong's population to decline after 2043, first 50-year projection indicates
First 50-year projection sheds further light on the challenges of an ageing population, as experts call for fresh approach to elderly care
Hong Kong's population will record a decline for the first time in the city's history after hitting a peak of 8.2 million in 2043, according to the first 50-year projection of the city's population.
The study, released yesterday by the Census and Statistics Department, also sheds light on the likely impact of the ageing population amid warnings from experts that the city is seriously underprepared for the severe demographic changes as post-war "baby boomers" retire.
By 2064, the study expects Hong Kong's population to have slid to 7.8 million, while the working population will be 500,000 lower than last year, a reduction of 14 per cent. Hong Kong had 7.2 million residents last year, of whom 3.6 million were working.
"The estimates aren't a huge surprise, but we just never notice some figures - so this time figures like the [over-85s] seem suddenly more prominent, and the problems bigger," said Professor Law Chi-kwong, a social work scholar at the University of Hong Kong. "Some services we basically haven't really developed - like dementia. Other care services, there's still some ways to go in order to catch up to the needs."
People aged 65 or over will make up 30 per cent of the population by 2034 - compared to 15 per cent last year - and increase to 36 per cent by 2064. In 2050, the number of people over 85 will cross 9 per cent, going up to 9.3 per cent in 2064 - compared to the 2.3 per cent this year.
