Worst drop since 1999: Hong Kong retail sales figures for first half of year suffer slump
Despite the disappointing results, the government says there was an improvement in the second quarter compared with the first
Hong Kong’s retail sales plunged 10.5 per cent in the first half of this year – the worst drop in 17 years – dragged down by the persistent tourism and economic downturn.
But the rest of year could see a slight pick-up in retail numbers, as the lower base last year would make growth easier, according to Mariana Kou, senior analyst at investment house CLSA. She forecast a 5 to 7 per cent decline for the whole of 2016.
In June, retail sales declined 8.9 per cent year on year, the 16th consecutive monthly contraction, while there was a dip of 8.4 per cent in May. During the Asian financial crisis in 1999, retail sales dropped 10.9 per cent in the first six months of the year.
“At least the situation is not getting worse,” Kou said, adding that the June figure was roughly in line with analysts’ predictions of an 8.1 per cent decline.
Kou said the city’s once-booming retail sector showed signs of stabilising, but lay-offs and store closures could continue in the second half of the year.
However, she noted that slight growth could be observed as early as August this year purely due to the lower base effect. “It would not be genuine growth,” she said.
