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El Nino now '90pc likely to strike this year', causing change in Hong Kong's weather patterns

The El Nino weather patten that would likely push back Hong Kong's typhoon season and bring more rain to the region is now 90 per cent likely to arrive this year, according to fresh weather forecasts.

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The Tsim Sha Tsui waterfront when Typhoon Usagi hit Hong Kong last year. Hong Kong is likely to have a later typhoon season and more rain later in the year as the El Nino weather phenomenon has a 90 per cent chance of striking this year. Photo: Sam Tsang

The El Nino weather patten that would likely push back Hong Kong's typhoon season and bring more rain to the region is now 90 per cent likely to arrive this year, according to fresh weather forecasts.

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El Nino begins as a giant pool of warm water swelling in the eastern tropical Pacific that sets off a chain reaction of weather events around the world, causing global famines, floods and even wars.

Hong Kong Observatory said last month that the weather anomaly could distort the territory's weather by delaying the arrival of typhoons as well as increasing rainfall in the winter and spring.

However while storms in the northwestern Pacific are likely to be stronger, there is no indication that those hitting Hong Kong will be more intense, said Observatory senior scientific officer Lee Sai-ming, adding that there was still a lot of uncertainty about the strength of the increasingly-likely El Nino.

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India is expected to be the first to suffer, with weaker monsoon rains undermining the nation’s fragile food supply, followed by further scorching droughts in Australia and collapsing fisheries off South America. But some regions could benefit, in particular the US, where El Nino is seen as the “great wet hope”, bringing rains that could break the searing drought in the west.

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