Covid-19 could be under control by end of April, China’s top respiratory expert says
- But it remains to be seen if the coronavirus that causes it will return next spring, says Zhong Nanshan, who heads a team that advises the government on the pandemic
- As countries around the world battle their own health crises, one of the best things they can do is make people stay at home, he says
“After late April, no one can say for sure if there will be another virus outbreak next spring or if it will disappear with warmer weather … though the virus’ activity will certainly diminish in higher temperatures,” he said.
Zhong did not say how he reached his forecast but other experts have suggested a similar time frame based on the latest developments in the United States and Europe, which are the current epicentres of the health crisis.
In the US, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington said that hospitals were likely to face the peak of Covid-19 patients around April 20.
Zhong said that governments around the world have to work together to fight the pandemic.
“Countries, including the US, have adopted aggressive and effective measures … [and] the most primitive and effective measure is making people stay at home,” he said.
A study by Imperial College London released this week estimated that the 11 European countries that had introduced social distancing measures had helped to reduce the spread of the coronavirus and prevented as many as 59,000 deaths.
China to include symptom-free coronavirus carriers in national figures
The use of antibody tests in addition to swab tests on people in 14-day quarantine would also help medical teams to more easily identify carriers of the coronavirus, he said.
China’s National Health Commission said that as of Wednesday, 1,075 asymptomatic carriers were currently under medical observation. A further 1,863 confirmed cases were still being treated in hospital, of which 701 were imported, it said.
Zhong also spoke about the possible long-term effects of contracting Covid-19. Last month, a study by Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority found that some people who had recovered from the disease experienced a drop in lung function of 20 to 30 per cent, and experienced problems such as a shortage of breath when walking quickly.
Zhong, however, said that based on his observation of Covid-19 patients and those who had recovered from similar diseases, like Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome), lung damage – primarily pulmonary fibrosis – tended not to be long term, and that most people were back to full health within six to 12 months.
According to WHO figures published in 2004, 8,096 people around the world contracted Sars, of which 774 died, mostly in mainland China and Hong Kong.
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