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SCMP Reporters

The most important event on China’s political calendar gets under way on Friday morning in a year like no other.
In 2021, the country will mark a series of milestones, from the centenary of the Communist Party to the 50th anniversary of the People’s Republic’s return to the United Nations.
But eyes will also be on the future, as President Xi Jinping offers his vision of the next three decades, starting with the next five-year plan.
Follow our live coverage of the opening of the National People’s Congress as we look for signs of how the central government plans to shake off the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, handle Hong Kong and Taiwan and project itself as a responsible power. As part of SCMP’s commitment to providing our readers with expert coverage, this live blog is free to all. Please support us on our mission to bring you quality journalism.
Reporting by Zhou Xin, Shi Jiangtao, Zhuang Pinghui, Kinling Lo, Sarah Zheng, Amber Wang, Rachel Zhang, Wendy Wu, Jun Mai and Laura Zhou


As it happened: ‘two sessions’ 2021 – China to ‘strengthen constitution enforcement’ in Hong Kong

The 4th session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. Photo: Xinhua

China’s ‘two sessions’ was postponed for two months in 2020 because of the global pandemic. Photo: Xinhua

‘Two sessions’ 2021: five things you need to know about China’s biggest political gatherings

News

China

Politics

The closing meeting of the third session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) is held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, on May 28, 2020. Photo: Xinhua

epa08434909 Delegates wearing face masks attend the opening of the third plenary session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in Beijing, China, 21 May 2020. China will hold the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on 21 May and the National People's Congress (NPC) on 22 May, after the two major political meetings initially planned to be held in March 2020 were postponed amid the ongoing coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. EPA-EFE/ANDY WONG / POOL

FILE - In this Dec. 4, 2013, file photo, Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with then U.S. Vice President Joe Biden as they pose for photos at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (AP Photo/Lintao Zhang, Pool, File)


Lawmakers from around the country converge on Beijing to chart a post-pandemic course for the next five years – and beyond
The National People’s Congress will be harking to the past and looking to the future as the nation stakes its claim to being a responsible power



Lawmakers from around the country converge on Beijing to chart a post-pandemic course for the next five years – and beyond.


Two Sessions 2021 (Lianghui)

Two Sessions 2021 (Lianghui): All Articles

Hong Kong politics

Taiwan

Li Keqiang

Live

This year’s session of the National People’s Congress is set to start at 9am at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. 
Nearly 3,000 deputies from across the country – including some from Hong Kong and Macau – will be attending the meeting, which has been shortened from the usual two weeks or so to just a week because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
First order of business for the opening session: Premier Li Keqiang will outline the country’s economic and social development over the previous year and lay out general guidelines for the one to come. 
The report also usually comments on diplomacy and military operations, with a few references on Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Read more about the report here. 


Countdown to the opening

On Tiananmen Square

One of the NPC’s tasks this year will be to pass the final version of China’s 14th five-year plan, which gives the leadership a chance to outline longer-term priorities.
Technology will be a major talking point at the meeting, as will trade, military spending and Beijing’s plans for Hong Kong. The Post cover the key agenda items for this year’s two sessions in this special series.   


The agenda

Beijing is cloaked in heavy smog this morning as vehicles bringing thousands of deputies from hotels arrive at the Great Hall of the People. 
The air quality index is 220, or “heavily polluted”.
Traffic restrictions are in place in and around Changan Avenue and police and armed forces personnel are on guard around the hall. Tourists are not allowed to enter Tiananmen Square until the session ends.


Grey skies

Deputies arrive

The meetings this year come as China faces accusations that it mishandled the early stages of the pandemic. It’s also under international pressure over Taiwan, the South China Sea and the prolonged border stand-off with India.
Relations with the United States are particularly tense. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described China as the biggest geopolitical challenge the United States faces in the 21st century.


Multiple challenges

Security at Tiananmen

A dramatic overhaul of Hong Kong’s electoral system is a key agenda item for this year’s NPC, sources have told the South China Morning Post.
Sources say the city’s Legislative Council could be expanded to have up to 90 lawmakers, up from 70 now, and another 300 members could be added to the 1,500-strong committee that selects the city’s chief executive now.
On the proposed expansion of Legco, sources say the additional members would be chosen from the Election Committee, which is due to meet in December.
As such members can only join Legco after December, sources say the postponement of the Legco elections is all but certain.
State-run news agency Xinhua reports that an item titled “Improving the Election System of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region” is the seventh item on the NPC agenda.   


Hong Kong electoral overhaul

One thing to watch for is whether Beijing will include a GDP target in the government work report.
Standard Chartered Bank chief China economist Ding Shuang says Beijing is likely to adopt a “floor” of 6 per cent economic growth for 2021.
Larry Hu, an economist with Macquarie Group in Hong Kong, says China might set a target of “over 6 per cent” for 2021 as growth still “matters a lot for top leaders”. At the same time, it’s also possible that Beijing will scrap the target because “policymakers don’t have to worry much about growth” in 2021, Hu says.
But Barclays economists led by Jian Chang suggest that Beijing will skip a numerical national growth target for 2021 - as was the case in 2020 - because the low base in 2020 could distort growth performance in 2021.
China reported 2.3 per cent GDP growth in 2020, making it the only major economy in the world to have positive economic growth amid the coronavirus pandemic.


Growth target?

Premier Li Keqiang is addressing the thousands of deputies in the hall and beginning his work report.
He highlights that China is the only major economy to grow in 2020.



Premier takes to the podium

The government work report says the 2021 GDP growth target is “above 6 per cent”.
China plans to create at least 11 million new urban jobs in 2021.
The country aims for an urban unemployment rate at “about 5.5 per cent” for the year; China’s end-2020 urban jobless rate was 5.2 per cent.
China targets a 2021 consumer price index of “about 3 per cent”; China’s 2020 CPI was 2.5 per cent.
China sets a fiscal budget deficit of 3.2 per cent of GDP for 2021 and makes no plan to issue special treasury bonds for coronavirus prevention.
The central government says it plans to keep the yuan exchange rate “basically stable” in 2021.   


‘Above 6 per cent’

Li Keqiang pledges to advance US-China trade ties, but stops short of mentioning the phase 1 trade deal, which was in last year’s government work report.
Li says the government is clearly aware of the difficulties and challenges ahead as the Covid-19 pandemic is still a factor.
He says there are still weak points in China’s pandemic control efforts, and the foundation for economic recovery is not strong enough, with limits on domestic consumption and a lack of strong investment growth.
Li says there are other weaknesses, including the difficult operating environment for small and medium-sized enterprises as well as pressure on unemployment, and financial risks.


Economic factors

Inside the Great Hall

Li says “innovation” will be at the centre of China’s modernisation efforts and “technology self-sufficiency” will underpin the country’s development.
China will use the country’s “national labs” to become a leading strategic technology power and establish a 10-year action plan to boost fundamental research.
The central government’s expenditure on basic research will increase 10.6 per cent in 2021.
 China’s investment in research and development will grow at an annual rate of at least 7 per cent over the next five years.


Innovation first

On the environment, Li says Beijing aims to eliminate toxic air pollution and urban water pollution in the next five years.
China will also implement climate control targets and expedite the shift towards a more environmentally friendly economy. 

He says China will cut its energy intensity and carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 13.5 per cent and 18 per cent respectively.
To serve China’s goal to be carbon neutral by 2060, Li says China will make an action plan to ensure carbon emissions peak by 2030.
As part of the efforts, China will develop nuclear power in a “proactive and orderly” manner.



Green targets

Carrie Lam at ‘two sessions’

In a reference to Hong Kong’s electoral laws, Li says Beijing will improve the relevant systems for enforcing the Chinese constitution and the city’s mini-constitution, and guard against foreign interference.
“We will comprehensively and accurately implement the principles of ‘one country, two systems’, ‘Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong’, ‘Macau people governing Macau’, and ‘high degree of autonomy,” he said.
“We will improve the relevant systems and mechanisms of the two special administrative regions for enforcing the [Chinese] constitution and the Basic Law; and implement the legal systems and enforcement mechanisms for the two regions to safeguard national security.
“We will resolutely guard against and deter external forces’ interference in the affairs of Hong Kong and Macau. We will support both regions as they grow their economies and improve people’s lives, so as to maintain the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau.”
Li’s emphasis on improving Hong Kong’s systems for enforcing the Chinese constitution and the city’s mini-constitution echoes earlier announcements of impending changes to the city’s political and electoral systems.


Hong Kong reform

China hails success in eliminating extreme poverty in rural areas this year, and makes “rural vitalisation” the next step in the campaign.
Li Keqiang says further work over the next five years will ensure that those who were helped out of poverty would remain so.
He promises stable employment, stepped-up training and continuous aid for low-income rural people.


Rural aid

Li says China will continue to “optimise” tax cuts this year.
For small businesses, the value-added tax payment threshold will be raised from 100,000 yuan of monthly sales to to 150,000 yuan.


Tax cuts

A year ago, Li also mentioned that the enactment of the national security law was to realise the Hong Kong government’s constitutional responsibility.
He also highlighted that Hong Kong and Macau needed better integration into national development plans.
This year, the premier did not mention these points.
 
..and the basic law, implement a legal system and an executing system that protects national security in the special administrative regions. [We need to] strongly safeguard Hong Kong and Macau affairs from being interfered by foreign forces...
  — Kinling Lo 盧建靈 (@kinlinglo) March 5, 2021


National security law in Hong Kong

Live: National People’s Congress opening ceremony

Public servant Chen Hongjian, 25, says the government report mentioned that it is necessary to further improve the level of opening up.
He says Shanghai has always been at the forefront of opening to the outside world, and he hopes further opening up will bring more employment opportunities.



On the street

Li says China will gradually raise the retirement age in the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025) and try to achieve an “appropriate fertility rate”.
Raising the retirement age is unpopular but is Beijing’s latest answer to address the country’s greying population. For more than four decades, China’s retirement age has remained unchanged at 60 for men and 55 for women, though it can be earlier for women in blue-collar jobs.
The mention of “appropriate fertility rate” sends a strong signal that Beijing is ready to make a fundamental change to the family planning policy from restricting births to encouraging births.


Retirement deferred

On the global trading regime and China’s global investment, Li says China will continue to promote its coronavirus-hit Belt and Road Initiative, the country’s signature investment and foreign policy initiative.
China will also improve the performance of its outbound investment amid growing concerns about its economic clout and increasingly aggressive diplomacy.
China is committed to deepening bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation and safeguarding the multilateral trading system, according to Li.
China will also aim to implement the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade deal by 15 Asia-Pacific nations, and wrap up the signing of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.
“We will accelerate China’s free-trade negotiations with Japan and the Republic of Korea. China will actively consider joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. We will promote the growth of mutually beneficial China-US business relations on the basis of equality and mutual respect. China stands ready to work with other countries to achieve mutual benefits on the basis of greater mutual opening,” he said.


Global trade

China aims to increase the population’s life expectancy by one year by the time the 14th five-year plan ends in 2025.
Life expectancy now is 77.3 years.
The country aims to raise life expectancy to 79 years by 2030.   


Longer lives

On Taiwan, the premier says Beijing remains committed to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus, and “to promoting the peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait and China’s reunification”.
Without referring directly to the government of the self-ruled island, Li denounces separatist activities.
In a message to the Taiwanese people, Li says Beijing will work on “the systems and policies for safeguarding the well-being of our Taiwan compatriots and ensuring they enjoy the same treatment on China’s mainland as local residents”.


Message for Taiwan

National People’s Congress 2021 opened with most of the 2953 delegates wearing face masks, while Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang, Politburo standing committee members and senior CPPCC members are the exceptions- new normal since last year. #TwoSessions pic.twitter.com/1v1MMc2UvK
  — Kinling Lo 盧建靈 (@kinlinglo) March 5, 2021


Xi goes mask-free but delegates don’t

On China’s contentious ethnic policy, Li vows to “forge a strong sense of community among the Chinese people and encourage all of China’s ethnic groups to work in concert for common prosperity and development”.
He did not mention Xinjiang or Tibet.
In a reference to widespread international accusations of religious persecution in China, he says the government will “guide religions in adapting to a socialist society”.
On the China’s military, Li stresses the Communist Party’s “absolute control” over the armed forces. Beijing will boost military training and preparedness and make plans for mounting security risks.


Religion and ethnic affairs

Pang Zhongying, an international relations professor at Ocean University of China, says Li’s speech indicates that in addition to boosting domestic economic growth, China is also aiming to boost its relations with more partners.
Pang says China would still focus on ties with the United States, but at the same time, will strengthen economic partnership with the European Union, Asean, and Japan.


Analysis: foreign policy

China will increase its military budget by 6.8 per cent to 1.355 trillion yuan (US$209 billion) in 2021.
This compares to 6.6 per cent growth last year, the slowest growth rate since 1989.
In his work report, Li pledges that China will strengthen its ability to defend its sovereignty.


Military budget increase

On foreign policy, Li says China will continue with its “independent foreign policy of peace” and promote “the building of a new type of international relations and a human community with a shared future”. 
In a veiled reference to the US-China rivalry and widespread suspicion towards China’s rise, he says Beijing is committed to pursuing “peaceful coexistence and common development” with other countries.
“China will join hands with them to meet global challenges and work tirelessly to promote world peace and prosperity,” Li said.


Policy of peace

NPC vice-chairman Wang Chen is explaining the Hong Kong electoral reforms.
Wang says that in recent years, some foreign forces have made use of loopholes in the city’s electoral system to interfere with Hong Kong’s affairs, so Beijing must plug the loopholes to ensure the city’s prosperity and stability.
He says that from 1984, late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping emphasised that patriots must form the main body of Hong Kong’s post-colonial administrators.
In January, President Xi Jinping stressed that “patriots governing Hong Kong” was fundamental to Hong Kong’s stability, Wang says.
He says Annexes I and II of the Basic Law, which stipulate the rules governing the election of the chief executive and the legislature, need to be amended.
The main text of Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, does not need to be changed, he adds, but certain local laws will need to be amended by the city’s government.
The reforms must comply with “one country, two systems”, safeguard national security, be done in accordance with the law, take Hong Kong’s actual situation into account, and improve the Hong Kong government’s efficiency, Wang says.
Wang says in loopholes in Hong Kong’s electoral system had allowed opposition activists to advocate for the city’s independence from China, and use their public office to call for foreign interference.
“The risks in the system need to be removed, and a democratic electoral system with Hong Kong characteristics need to be established,” he adds.


Expanding on Hong Kong reforms

Shanghai fruit shop owner Li Shunqian, 57, says the new tax cut will of course be good for small businesses like hers.
“Despite the tax cut, online shopping means the business environment for my fruit shop is not good,” Li says.
“After paying rent, I earned only a little over 2,000 yuan per month.
“I was born in 1965 and our generation did not get much education. Many people only went to primary school and certainly don’t know how to run an online shop. Otherwise, I would have also started an online shop.
“I hope the government can carry out policies that help small physical shops like mine. I certainly would pay more tax if I could earn more.”



View from a fruit shop

Authorities throughout China together spent more than 400 billion yuan (US$62 billion) on containing the coronavirus last year.
According to the budget and expenditure report, spending by customs authorities in this area forced general public expenditure up 8 per cent over the budget to 173.5 billion yuan.


Covid-19 spending

Henry Ho Kin-chung, from the One Country Two Systems Youth Forum think tank, says Li  Keqiang’s references to “improving systems and mechanisms related to the implementation of the Constitution and Basic Law of the special administrative region” mainly involves up-coming electoral reforms in Hong Kong.
“Beijing has been emphasising that improving Hong Kong’s electoral system is a major part of the effort to close legal loopholes and provide a sound system to guarantee that ‘patriots administer Hong Kong’,” Ho says.
Professor Song Sio-chong, from Shenzhen University’s Centre for Basic Laws of Hong Kong and Macau, says: “Sooner or later, we have to address the issues of the Basic Law that cover the rights of people who are permanent residents. The Chinese constitution covers Chinese citizens.”
Song says Article 23 of the Basic Law is also one of the “missing links” between the constitution and basic laws that Hong Kong needs to act on.


Analysis: Basic Law

Yukon Huang, a senior fellow with the Asia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington, says Beijing’s goal of technological self-sufficiency could be problematic for itself and the West.
“Trying to produce all components ... is not very sensible because no country has the advantage or ability to be self-sufficient in all components. But if you try, you’re going to waste a lot of money doing so. And you’re cutting off the market for those who are supplying it. So everyone is worse off,” says Huang, former World Bank country director for China from 1997 to 2004.
“If the West isn’t willing to sell to [China], like America is, they have no choice. But American companies used to get anywhere from 20 to 30 per cent of their revenues from selling to China. A whole range of US companies’ revenues are going to be cut significantly and they’re going to have trouble investing and growing.”
Huang says that becoming more innovative will not solve China’s GDP growth problem, pointing to the example of South Korea. 
“South Korea became much more innovative but its growth rate was cut in half. In the last 10 years, South Korea’s growth rate has been somewhere close to 3 per cent, [lower than] it used to be,” Huang says.


Analysis: tech

Wu Junfei, deputy director of the Tianda Institute, a Hong Kong-based think tank, says Li’s speech indicates that on top of electoral reform Beijing is likely to push forward more changes to Hong Kong’s administration, business environment and legal system. 
“There have been discussions in Beijing about the reform of the administrative officer system, anti-monopoly reforms to allow Hong Kong youth and small companies a better chance to prosper and reforms to its legal and judiciary systems,” Wu says.


Analysis: Hong Kong

In a separate report on the nation’s 14th five-year plan released on Friday, the government says it will further improve the implementation of national security legal mechanisms in Hong Kong and Macau, and help the two special administrative regions become more competitive.
It says the central government will support Hong Kong in its role as an international financial, logistics and trade centre, as well as with its offshore yuan business.
The pledge comes after the Heritage Foundation dropped Hong Kong from its list of the world’s freest economies, saying it was a reflection of Beijing’s “ultimate control” over the city.
Hong Kong officials say the decision was clouded by political bias.


Hong Kong and the 14th five-year plan

Moments from the NPC

The central government’s Vision 2035 blueprint stops short of making it a target to double 2021′s GDP by 2035, which Chinese President Xi Jinping said last year was “completely possible”.
The 14th five-year plan does not have a specific growth target either, and only says “growth should remain in the reasonable range”.   


Vision 2035

As he is leaving his seat, former Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa stumbles and a few people – including Carrie Lam – reaches out to steady him.




Tung Chee-hwa stumbles

Key points from Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report:
  	
China is setting a growth target “above 6 per cent” for 2021, while tackling challenges, including lack of growth momentum
Priorities for Hong Kong include reforming the city’s electoral system, and guarding against foreign interference
The defence budget has been increased by 6.8 per cent
The retirement age will be deferred



Key takeaways

The South China Morning Post’s coverage of the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress has now finished.
Thank you for joining us. Find all of our expert coverage and analysis on our two sessions Knowledge page.
