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Growth and reform in tug of war as Chinese leaders grapple with hard choices

Premier Li Keqiang’s focus on GDP targets suggests that stabilisation – and not restructuring – is the top priority for this year, economists say

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A worker walks past a pile of iron ore at a port in Tianjin. China is trying to shift the fundamentals of its economy, but supply-side reforms may not come as soon as hoped. Photo: Reuters

Just three months ago, Chinese leaders approved an annual economic blueprint that suggested reform would be this year’s top priority.

It was part of a push to tackle deep-seated structural problems such as overcapacity, bad debt and worsening income gap.

But with the world’s second-largest economy battling headwinds, the government’s bigger priority now seems to be growth, economists say, citing policy documents and remarks by leaders at the annual session of the National People’s Congress.

The reform tone was set late last year. The annual Central Economic Work Conference declared that supply-side reform – which favours less government involvement and greater play for the market – would be a major feature of China’s economic and social policies in 2016 and beyond.

But after the NPC ended on Wednesday, Premier Li Keqiang pledged that the country would achieve its 6.5 per cent minimum growth target, all the while insisting that this would not mean sacrificing planned supply-side reform.

READ MORE: We’ll stabilise China’s economy: Premier Li Keqiang sets the tone for the year ahead

Jianguang Shen, chief China economist with Mizuho Securities Asia, said Li signalled that more stimulus was in the pipeline and structural reform could be postponed this year.
When Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did mention reform at his wrap-up of the National People’s Congress on Wednesday, his rhetoric was more muted than in the past. Photo: Bloomberg
When Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did mention reform at his wrap-up of the National People’s Congress on Wednesday, his rhetoric was more muted than in the past. Photo: Bloomberg
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