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The Chinese military’s share of the country’s GDP remains below what Nato members spend on defence, a former PLA officer has said. Photo: AP

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: defence budget signals military readiness, not imminent war, experts say

  • Focus on reserve forces reflects lessons learned from Ukraine war, expert says
  • Premier’s work report stresses military’s loyalty to Xi Jinping after months of high-level purges

The 7.2 per cent growth earmarked for China’s military budget for this year is the same as 2023 and shows Beijing is not preparing for imminent war, but is taking strategically cautious steps to defend its interests, analysts said.

The budget was released by the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday as Premier Li Qiang addressed the opening session of the National People’s Congress.

In his work report, Li outlined ramped up support for war readiness through expansion of reserve forces.

He also stressed the need for military loyalty, following one of the largest purges in the defence ministry in recent years.

The world’s second-biggest military budget, which is set to grow to 1.67 trillion yuan (US$232 billion), according to the ministry, is closely watched as China faces multiple tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, as well as continued friction in its rivalry with the United States.

“The growth of China’s military expenditure is consistent with the growth of GDP,” Yue Gang, a retired colonel from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said, adding the spending was a solid foundation for the “steady” development of national defence and military expansion.

China’s GDP growth target this year was set at around 5 per cent, similar to last year’s goal.

“The current situations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are controllable and preventable,” Yue said, adding the increased volatility in those regions “will not shake” Beijing’s established military policy.

The PLA has set 2027 – the year of its centenary – to achieve its modernisation goals, which would pave the way for it to become a “world class” military power by 2049.

Fu Qianshao, a former PLA equipment expert, said China needed to increase military expenditure “appropriately … to improve equipment and training levels”.

“[The growth] is not because of the tensions near our country, but to make adjustments year by year according to our own plan,” Fu said.

“The cost of hi-tech equipment is rising and the increase in military spending is normal to adapt to the advancements in military equipment,” Fu said.

He also said the military’s share of China’s GDP was below 1.5 per cent, while that of the US and its allies was “much higher”.

Nato countries have committed to spending at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence each year. The US, the world’s biggest military spender, will spend about US$886 billion on its defence budget this year.

For the first time in an annual government work report, Li said Beijing would ramp up its war readiness by improving its reserve forces, the part of the military responsible for combat readiness support and defensive operations.

Meanwhile, the National Development and Reform Commission’s national planning document, which is separate from the ministry’s budget report, pledged to improve the military’s ability to mobilise. It also said it would expand defence industry capacity and coordination for military-related infrastructure.

It was a clear signal of Beijing’s drive to allocate more resources from across the country in the event of war and reflected lessons from the Ukraine war, according to Fu.

“In case of future wartime emergencies, training must be conducted regularly to ensure they can win the fight when being called up,” Fu said.

Drones have been widely used in the Ukraine war, Fu said, but he noted that someone had to operate them. “We should follow future war patterns and integrate drones into regular military training,” Fu said.

Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese naval academy in Kaohsiung, said the budget had not increased “significantly” given the need for huge investments to update PLA aircraft and add new warships, against the backdrop of its territorial disputes with countries like the Philippines.

Beijing’s military spending “is out of a need to maintain mid- to long-term national security, including in the South China Sea”, Lu said.

In a signal of loyalty, amid the high-level purges, the premier slipped in a salute in his annual report to Xi’s military leadership.

“We will … thoroughly implement the system of ultimate responsibility resting with the chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC),” Li said, in reference to Xi’s tightening grip on the military.

In October, Beijing abruptly removed Li Shangfu as defence minister without explanation after just seven months on the job. Just ahead of this year’s “two sessions”, Li was also removed from the CMC. Nine generals – including top commanders from the PLA Rocket Force – were ousted from the legislature in December.
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