Could Donald Trump start war with China over Scarborough Shoal to win re-election?
- Retired Chinese naval officer writes that US president could start conflict in disputed South China Sea to boost approval rating
- Observers say the idea has little military benefit but increased risk of accidental clashes remains a concern
Observers said they were concerned about accidental clashes as Beijing and Washington increasingly confront each other – but although a US offensive could spark a drastic escalation into all-out war, they viewed the possibility of it happening as low, especially without the Philippines’ agreement.
Wang Yunfei, a retired Chinese naval officer, recently wrote in a column on a military website that Trump, trailing in polls ahead of November 3’s US election, could start a “controllable” military conflict with China in the disputed South China Sea to boost his approval rating.
02:32
Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions
The shoal, 120 nautical miles west of Luzon, the largest island in the Philippines, is contested by Manila and Beijing. It used to be a shooting range for the US military when it was stationed in the Philippines.
“There are no troops stationed there, so the consequence of a [US-China] diplomatic conflict is relatively smaller,” Wang wrote. “The American military might also try to humiliate the Chinese in the name of a resumption of their shooting training.”
01:11
Philippines threatens war with China over South China Sea
But an attack on the shoal, which is within the 200 nautical miles of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, could also represent a slap in the face for Manila unless it gives prior consent, according to Hu Bo, director of think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative.
“To throw some bombs into an empty lagoon makes no military sense, and it would also upset the Philippines and even other countries in the region,” Hu said. “But if it did happen, it would also open the door to a hot conflict, just like attacking the Chinese artificial islands in the South China Sea would mean a full-on war.”
“President Duterte’s order to us, to me, is that we should not involve ourselves in naval exercises in the South China Sea except our national waters, within 12 miles of our shores,” Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said.
02:19
Philippine President Duterte admits being at a loss getting Beijing to honour South China Sea ruling
This appeared to rule out the possibility of the Philippines – alone or jointly with the Americans – using force near Scarborough Shoal, which does not generate 12 nautical miles of territorial sea in its own right. The country has previously taken part in a number of joint exercises in the region.
“This policy is to avoid further irritating Beijing, given that US military activities in the South China Sea have practically protected the interests of the Philippines, an American ally by treaty,” said Zhang Mingliang, a specialist in South China Sea studies at Jinan University in Guangzhou, southern China.
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Technically, the Philippines’ attitude has also greatly reduced the chance of the US attacking Scarborough Shoal, Zhang added.
03:23
The South China Sea dispute explained
“Trump does have the political motive to create a crisis to divert his troubles at home. But militarywise a conflict with China is too risky to manage,” said Wu Xinbo, director of Fudan University’s Centre for American Studies.
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Nonetheless, an increase in encounters between US and Chinese warships and planes may lead to some accidents, which could escalate rapidly given current tensions, Hu said.
