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China Diplomacy

Time could soon be ripe for China to lead negotiations to end Ukraine-Russia war

Despite efforts by China to act as a mediator in ending the fighting in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to date it has had limited influence
But with Ukraine’s recent failed counteroffensive and Western aid drying up, the time may have come for China to help broker peace

Ukraine war

Dewey Sim

Published: 10:00pm, 28 Feb 2024

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As the war in Ukraine stretches into its third year, China’s efforts as a mediator, offering its services to help bring about a cessation to the fighting, have yet to win much success.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, China has often billed itself as a neutral arbitrator, capable of playing a bigger role in ending the war.

To that end, last year Chinese President Xi Jinping met twice with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and in April he held a phone call with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

Beijing also published its version of a peace proposal and sent a special envoy to both Moscow and Kyiv, with former foreign minister Qin Gang earlier saying that Beijing could offer “Chinese wisdom” to ease the crisis.

Despite this, China’s lack of success has been attributed by analysts to its limited sway over both sides of the battlefield, in particular Russia – even as the international community piled pressure on Beijing to exert its influence over Moscow to end the war.

But now there could be a turning point. Recent developments, including Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive, could present a window of opportunity for Beijing to again play a “leading role” to broker peace, analysts have said.

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China’s ‘no limits’ relationship with Russia

Zhang Xin, an associate professor of international relations at East China Normal University, said China’s approach towards the war included pushing for peaceful negotiations, banning the supply of weapons to Russia and providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The lack of any major breakthrough was down to the parties involved in the conflict, who have “vastly different positions and so high stakes in claiming a final victory”.

“Any other party, China included, has extremely limited influence to swing the final result,” he said.

Western countries have repeatedly urged China – a close strategic partner of Russia – to tap its influence over Moscow, but so far Beijing has refrained from condemning the invasion. Instead, the Asian superpower has maintained close ties with its neighbour.

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Just days before the war, China declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia. Then one month later, when the two leaders met in Moscow in March 2022, Xi called Putin “my dear friend” and the pair spent hours discussing bilateral cooperation and the war.

When Putin reciprocated with a visit to Beijing last October, Xi vowed to boost the development of the two countries and “safeguard international fairness and justice”.

Given that Beijing was “in the driver’s seat with their relationship with Russia”, Finland’s president-elect Alexander Stubb last week appealed to China to play a significant role in peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

But “such expectation is overplayed in the first place”, Zhang said of the West’s calls for China to pressure Russia.

After all, he added, the two countries share similar views on key global issues and “often act together”. Russia has also been viewing China with growing importance on the economics front.

According to Fan Hongda, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University, unlike Western countries, China has the ability to communicate with Russia. But he did not think at present that Beijing could exert “significant influence” on Moscow to end the war.

Andrew Mertha, director of the China studies programme at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, noted that China’s “unbreakable” relationship with Russia has made the West view China as “part of the problem and not the solution”.

But he said Beijing has, in fact, been “more constrained than we think”.

Potential conflict between Beijing and Moscow

Mertha suggested there have been certain areas of potential conflict between China and Russia festering just below the surface which Beijing has sought to avoid disturbing.

One example is central Asia. The more occupied the Kremlin was on its “western front”, the less likely it would be to upend the region’s status quo, lending China greater security.

“An ignoble defeat by Putin may result in a need for him to show that he is in charge at the expense of Kazakhstan or its neighbouring countries,” Mertha said. “That is precisely the type of backyard instability Beijing wants to avoid.”

With Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing, now could be the right time for China to help broker a deal to end the conflict once and for all. Photo: AP

For Cheng Chen, professor of political science at the University of Albany, China is the only major power that could exert “substantive pressure” on Russia, given that it is Moscow’s “most important strategic, although not formal, ally”.

But according to Chen, China has been reluctant to prod Russia to make concessions to end the war as it valued Russia’s strategic partnership within the broader context of heightened tensions with the US.

“The West and Ukraine would certainly want China to do more. But from China’s point of view, it will only do so when it feels like it is in China’s interest,” she said.

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“As the current status quo on the battlefield seems to favour Russia, China probably does not see a lot of incentives to push Russia to make significant concessions.”

Chen suggested China’s lack of progress in its mediation efforts could also be attributed to one other factor – timing.

Last year, when China dispatched its special envoy Li Hui on a European tour, both sides still believed they could achieve a “decisive victory” on the battlefield. At that time, she said, Ukraine and its Western supporters were actively preparing for a major counteroffensive.

In other words, “the condition for a political settlement was far from ripe,” she said.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi made similar remarks at a security conference in Munich last week, when he said that conditions were “not ripe” for a negotiation between the parties, while calling for a diplomatic solution to the war.

Since last year, however, things have changed significantly.

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The changing tide of the Ukraine-Russia war

Ukraine’s major offensive has largely failed, Western aid has started drying up and the Western-led sanctions have yet to crush the Russian economy, Chen said. On the battlefield, Russia has also made some recent tactical gains.

“All these present an opportunity for China to renew its push to play a leading role in achieving a political solution for this conflict that will define the future of Europe,” she said.

If China succeeded, it would help convince the Global South group of developing nations and even some in Europe that its global diplomatic clout “now rivals that of the US”.

China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday announced that Li would embark on a second round of shuttle diplomacy next month, where he was expected to again visit Russia and Ukraine and other European states.

Breakaway Moldovan region asks Russia for ‘protection’, raising Ukraine tensions

But Li Ziguo, director and associate research fellow of the Department for European-Central Asian Studies with China Institute of International Studies, argued is not up to China – which he said has a mindset of resolving conflicts – to broker peace, but instead, “the key is held by the US”.

“If the US wants this war to continue, then it can put more resources into it. And if the US prefers a peace deal, then [it] will force Zelensky to talk,” he said, referring to the large amount of military aid Washington has given to Ukraine.

“What China can do is [direct] our attention to the situation and look forward to playing a role to resolve the problem. What the US is looking for is to drag Russia down, so I don’t think China’s mediation efforts could go any further if the US doesn’t change its mind.”

How China benefits from the war

Fan, from Shanghai International Studies University, echoed the sentiment, suggesting that China knows the war is not a conflict that exists only between Russia and Ukraine.

“There is not much China can do to promote an early end to the war,” he said, noting that the US and some European countries have, in effect, extended the war by pledging military assistance to Ukraine.

“China should not be blamed for the continuation of this war, because the fundamental reason for the outbreak and the continuation of the war has nothing to do with China,” he said.

Mertha from Johns Hopkins, said if China sought to improve its ties with Washington, it could halt its assistance to Moscow to help end the war. But that was “highly unlikely”.

“From China’s point of view, the more [the war] weakens the US and the EU, on balance, the better it is for Beijing to increase its international reach,” he said.

Additional reporting by Laura Zhou