Overblown national security concerns pushing China, US closer to cold war, expert says

Expert on China-US relations says ties with Beijing could be severed if Washington pushes for closer relations with Taiwan
Jia Qingguo says Taiwan Policy Act will have a disastrous impact on China-US relations if it is passed

US-China relations

Teddy Ng

Published: 5:00am, 27 Oct 2022

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China and the United States have exaggerated concerns over national security, and ties between the two nations could be severed if Washington pushes for closer ties with Taiwan, according to a member of a high-level Chinese think tank.

In an interview published on Tuesday by the Carter Centre, Jia Qingguo, a professor of international studies at Peking University, said China and the US are edging closer to a cold war.

“I feel that national security issues are overemphasised in both countries. Facing the actions of the other side, some people in both countries believed that the other side poses a serious threat to their own national security, and so they must respond,” he said.

“Whether the other side develops armaments, or develops hi-tech, it will be considered a serious threat to national security.”

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Even though China and the US are not engaged in a full-blown ideological or military confrontation, Jia said the risk of the two countries terminating bilateral ties is running higher.

The August trip to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has dealt a huge blow to China-US relations, Jia said, adding that Beijing regards the trip as part of a US effort to “hollow out” the one-China principle.

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Mainland China and Taiwan split in 1949 at the end of a civil war when the Kuomintang fled to Taipei after being defeated by Communist Party forces.

Beijing sees the island as part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to take control of it. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force.

Beijing, which saw Pelosi’s trip as an endorsement of Taiwan’s pro-independence agenda, responded with a massive military drill against the island.

“The trip was a significant shock to the political foundation of China-US relations. If this momentum continues, China and the United States will have to cut off diplomatic relations,” Jia said.

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The proposed Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, which was overwhelmingly approved by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, would further drag down China-US relations, according to Jia.

The act, which has yet to be passed by the US Congress, contains clauses that remove restrictions on official interaction between the US and Taiwan, and would provide a Taiwanese representative in the US the same diplomatic status as diplomats of foreign countries. The bill also has a provision to impose sanctions on mainland China’s top political leadership and its biggest banks if Beijing engages in a “significant escalation in aggression” against Taiwan.

“If the act is finally passed according to the original intention of the person who proposed the draft of the bill, I think it will definitely have a disastrous impact on China-US relations,” Jia said.

But Jia stressed there are still people from both countries with pragmatic views who want to avoid amplifying security risks.

“There are people who still think security risks cannot be ignored, but neither can they be overemphasised. China and the US should cooperate in areas of mutual interest to stabilise and improve relations,” he said.

The coming US midterm elections may lead to more uncertainty, but could also create a positive development in relations between the two countries, with some analysts predicting that the Democrats may lose control of Congress, Jia said.

Under that scenario, Republicans may continue to push to have China formally designated as a threat to US interests, moving Washington a step closer to a full confrontation with Beijing. However, if Democrats lose both chambers, the Biden administration is likely to focus more on international affairs, Jia said.

“Biden’s attitude towards China is relatively rational and pragmatic,” Jia said. “Biden may adopt a more pragmatic attitude toward China.”

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Jia is currently in the US for academic exchanges, which have recently resumed after being largely suspended due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Scott Kennedy, from the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, recently finished a month-long trip to Beijing and Shanghai, which included a meeting with China’s foreign vice-minister, Xie Feng.

Kennedy said the goal of his visit was to “open a crack” in the echo chambers of both countries.