Why China will struggle to draw India away from US despite close stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine

India’s balancing act between the US and Russia has not impacted its tilt towards Washington in the great power rivalry
China has clearly underestimated India’s grievances with their protracted border stand-off

Shi Jiangtao

Published: 9:00pm, 12 Apr 2022

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Russia’s war in Ukraine has left India and China walking the diplomatic high wire, as the two Asian neighbours struggle to balance ties with both Moscow and Washington.

As Beijing sees it, New Delhi’s refusal to succumb to Western pressure to call out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression, alongside its dependence on Russian weapons, offer a golden opportunity to pull India away from Washington’s orbit.

But hopes that Beijing could leverage the Ukraine crisis to drive a wedge between India and the US and thus draw its South Asian neighbour closer appear to have been misplaced. Instead, there are signs that the paths for China and India are diverging more than ever, going by New Delhi’s recent interactions with both Beijing and Washington.

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It is clear that Joe Biden is not happy with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over what the US president has called New Delhi’s “somewhat shaky” stance on Ukraine. But India’s balancing act between the US and Russia, increasingly an irritant for the West, has so far done little to prevent New Delhi from retaining its tilt towards Washington in the US-China great power rivalry.

Virtual talks on Monday between Biden and Modi were described by US officials as “warm” and “candid”, with the Indian leader renewing his commitment to closer ties with Washington. And while Biden appeared to have made little progress in persuading Modi to change his mind on continuing to buy Russian oil and weapons, the Indian prime minister nonetheless expressed concerns about the “very worrying” situation in Ukraine.

Mounting civilian casualties in Ukraine, which was invaded by Russian forces 48 days ago, have also prompted India to delicately adjust its largely pro-Russia stance.

In a departure from its repeated abstention votes in the United Nations on resolutions pertaining to Russia’s role in the Ukraine crisis, New Delhi has “unequivocally” condemned the killings uncovered in the city of Bucha and called for an independent investigation.

India’s move stood in sharp contrast with China’s, which has described the Bucha images as “very disturbing” while calling upon all sides to show restraint and avoid finger-pointing.

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But China is also trying to woo India in the wake of the Ukraine war, which has crystallised India’s divide with the US and exposed the fragility of Washington’s China-focused Indo-Pacific strategy that relies on New Delhi’s support and participation. But Beijing has clearly underestimated New Delhi’s grievances with their protracted border stand-off, with no direct talks between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping since May 2020.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi got the cold shoulder last month as he visited New Delhi for the first time since a deadly clash in a disputed Himalayan border region two years ago, which left 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese troops dead.

Wang’s request to call on Modi was reportedly rejected by the prime minister himself. Both sides continued to talk past each other, with Wang highlighting their similar stance on Ukraine and Indian officials being adamant about a de-escalation of border tensions before bilateral ties could return to normalcy.

With the Biden administration poised to unveil its Indo-Pacific economic framework soon, Beijing will no doubt have to step up its efforts to woo New Delhi in the coming months. For Beijing, there is no cause for gloating over the US-India rift caused by the war and the possible faltering of the Quad, a US-led four-way grouping with India, Australia and Japan that Beijing sees as a national security threat.

It is clear that India’s self-proclaimed neutrality on the Ukraine war is as much about its security dependence on Russia, as it is about China. One of the biggest reasons for New Delhi to balk at denouncing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is that it needs Moscow’s weapons supply to counter Beijing.

From New Delhi’s perspective, China remains a top obstacle to its global ascendance, given Beijing’s willingness to go to war over border disputes and its support for India’s arch rival Pakistan. And this is unlikely to change in the near future.

If China is serious about preventing the Quad becoming an Asian Nato and turning India into an adversary, Xi may have to talk to Modi directly to inject fresh momentum into the stalled border talks and seek an early end to the military stand-off.