China and the US step up their tug of war for Southeast Asian allies
- While senior officials from Washington toured the region this week China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi was wooing Asean
- Southeast Asian countries are reluctant to pick a side but the pressure is intensifying
“Unfortunately, Beijing’s unwillingness to resolve disputes peacefully and respect the rule of law isn’t just occurring on the water,” Austin said, referring to the competing claims in the South China Sea.
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“Our network of alliances and friendships is an unparalleled strategic asset. And I never take an ally for granted,” Austin told officials, diplomats and academics at an International Institute for Strategic Studies Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on Tuesday.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the deepening acrimony between China and the US would unnerve Southeast Asian countries, where leaders like Singapore’s Lee have repeatedly expressed their reluctance to be forced to take sides.
“The tone of his entire speech was that he hoped that regional countries would strengthen partnership with the US and he was actually trying to persuade the regional countries to take a side, and leaders in Southeast Asia should be able to receive the message,” he said.
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And observers said the latest swing through Asia by senior US officials is more evidence that the Biden administration is retooling its alliances eastward to manage the challenges from China.
One day after Austin landed in Singapore, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on his first visit to India, working to strengthen a partnership that he described as “one of the US’ top foreign policy priorities”.
In New Delhi, Blinken met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and joined External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to reiterate a commitment to expand the Quad partnership – the informal security grouping of the US, India, Australia and Japan seen by Beijing as an attempt to thwart Chinese interests in the region.
“[The US] has intensified its engagement in the region and strengthened its diplomatic and security efforts. To a large extent, it is keen to create a regional posture in the region … to exert pressure on China,” Li said.
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Beijing, meanwhile, is seeking to craft a countervailing strategy. On Wednesday, when Austin landed in Hanoi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was speaking at a virtual summit to mark the 30th anniversary of formal ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. He urged the bloc to adopt what he called “multilateralism with Asian characteristics”.
“China has always made Asean its priority for diplomacy in the region,” Wang said, according to the readout released on Thursday by the Chinese foreign ministry. “Both sides should conduct frequent communication on all levels, and continue with mutual understanding and support for each other’s core interests.”
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It was a stark contrast to the sharp, aggressive tone used by Wang and other Chinese diplomats during their meeting with US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman in Tianjin three days earlier.
Li said Beijing’s efforts were intended to prevent Southeast Asia from tilting too far towards the US. “From China’s perspective, it is hard to really impact countries like Japan, Australia or India, but China’s influence in Southeast Asia could be relatively bigger and Beijing has put in a lot of effort in [wooing] Southeast Asia and Asean,” he said.
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Li said there was common ground between Beijing and Southeast Asia, with many countries in the region sceptical of the Quad, for example. There is a concern that the informal alliance could develop into a military grouping which could confront China and drag the region into the bitter China-US rivalry, he said.
“Southeast Asian countries know that if the strategic competition between China and the US continues to intensify, they will face more challenges and difficulties when dealing with the two countries and regional affairs.”
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Chen Xiangmiao, an assistant research fellow with the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said while Beijing was unlikely to back away in the region, it should avoid taking a direct confrontational approach to the US and pushing Southeast Asia too hard.
“If China follows the path of the US and meets force with Washington, this would be the last scenario that Southeast Asia wants to see, and this is not in China’s benefit.”