Xi Jinping’s trip to India and Nepal ‘was a much-needed win for China at critical time’
- Few tangible results from Chinese president’s unofficial summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as leaders steer clear of touchy subjects
- But trade talks commitment with New Delhi a diplomatic victory, analyst says, while Xi also shored up Kathmandu’s support for belt and road scheme
There were few tangible results from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the weekend, but analysts said his whirlwind three-day visit to India and Nepal was a much-needed success for Beijing.
“The summit was big on pomp, pageantry and nice-sounding phrases but short on tangible results,” said Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research.
They reaffirmed a pledge made at the last summit in Wuhan, China, that “both sides will prudently manage their differences and not allow differences on any issue to become disputes”, an Indian government statement said.
However, the contentious issues of China’s Huawei 5G network and India’s decision to revoke the special autonomous status of Kashmir were not discussed, Gokhale said.
While Xi said that he and Modi held “candid discussions as friends”, the Indian leader hailed their Chennai meeting as marking “a new era of cooperation” between the two countries.
One of just a few concrete results was the establishment of a new mechanism to discuss and resolve India’s trade deficit with China, which stood at US$53 billion last year, with Chinese Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua and Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to taking leading roles.
Xi said China “is ready to take sincere action” on trade and “to discuss in a very concrete way how to reduce the trade deficit”, Gokhale said.
Chellaney noted that despite similar pledges to improve ties, the two sides had made little progress on the trade front since the Wuhan summit in April last year.
Sun Shihai, an India expert at Sichuan University, said it was not surprising that the latest summit did not produce quick solutions to long-standing issues that have hindered bilateral ties for years.
“Despite the leadership summits, there’s still deep-rooted suspicion and antagonism between the two countries. That’s why top leaders need to build personal rapport to address the trust deficit and set out a clear blueprint for the long-term and strategic development of bilateral ties,” he said.
It would be unrealistic to expect breakthroughs, Sun said, especially on their bitter territorial disputes in the remote Himalayan region, which saw a war in 1962 and a 70-day stand-off in 2017.
He noted both sides touched on the border issue in their statements, citing a political agreement signed in 2005 that promised to take into account both sides’ “strategic and reasonable interests”.
“Against the backdrop of global uncertainties and China’s trade tensions with the US, Beijing is keen to set aside differences and find common ground with New Delhi,” Sun said. “For Beijing, it is quite positive for the leaders to meet in person during these informal summits, which signals bilateral ties have moved on after the 2017 border dispute.”
“The Nepal visit showed how Xi is pursuing his strategic ambitions on India’s doorstep. In Nepal, he upgraded ties to a strategic partnership with a country that is symbiotically tied to India,” Chellaney said.
Mohan Guruswamy, chairman of the Centre for Policy Alternatives in New Delhi, said the proposed rail link between Lhasa and Kathmandu, which has security implications for India, would be more interesting to watch.
“I don’t think it will be long before India offers to build a rail link from Kathmandu to join its rail system,” he said.
“There will be a few noises in India about the security implications of a China-Nepal rail link. But such links also increase vulnerability. So the strategic communities in both China and India will have one more bone to chew,” he added.
Sun said Nepal, which shares a long border with Tibet and is home to around 20,000 Tibetan exiles, was of strategic importance for Beijing’s national security and global ambitions.
“While it is understandable that China and India are strategic competitors from a geopolitical point of view and Indians are suspicious of China’s manoeuvring in South Asia, deemed by New Delhi as its sphere of influence, Beijing has tried its best to accommodate concerns from New Delhi,” he said. “It is crystal clear that Beijing will not pursue better ties at the cost of its regional friends and allies, especially Pakistan.”