What do North Korea’s latest missile tests mean for China?
- With Beijing’s influence over its ‘little brother’ waning it will want to keep its own interests in mind, writes Edward Howell
- Pyongyang has said the test are a ‘warning’ to the US and South Korea and may be a sign of frustration
But what signal does this send to Beijing?
First and foremost, this warning to the US and South Korea is nothing new. The North has, for decades, decried the South’s military exercises with the US as “war games” and “rehearsals for a nuclear war” on the peninsula.
But this latest warning comes at a time when the Democratic People’s Republic has been taking to both Seoul and Washington.
The North Korean foreign ministry deemed the exercises to be “a flagrant violation” of inter-Korean, and US-DPRK declarations that had been signed over the past few years.
Clearly, for Pyongyang, the “new relations” mentioned in the Singapore summit joint statement following Kim’s first meeting with Donald Trump, have not yet materialised.
In the eyes of the North, only when the “hostile policy” against it is stopped and these military exercises are scrapped, can any tangible discussions materialise.
Crucially, the foreign ministry’s dismissal of these exercises saw the DPRK assert how it may seek to counter the “defensive” US-ROK military exercises, saying it would “develop, test and deploy the powerful physical means essential for national defence”.
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In true North Korean style, the international community was left to wonder what this could entail, but one need only look at the past to see what this “physical means” could comprise.
The short-range ballistic missile launches reinforce the sense that Pyongyang has not stopped developing its military and nuclear capabilities despite Kim’s “new strategic line”, which prioritises strengthening the domestic economy.
Yet, the North is also clearly frustrated: frustrated with the US for the stalled dialogue, but equally frustrated by China.
Beijing’s desire for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula may become increasingly frustrated as its influence over its “little brother” wanes, at least for now.
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The DPRK has not lost its ability to use nuclear and missile launches for the purposes of brinkmanship.
Not only has North Korea become an expert at evading multilateral and unilateral sanctions it has also proved adept at playing off the great powers against each other – and the recent launches have put its relations with China at the forefront of the nuclear question.
Efforts by the South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, to engage the North, and persuade it to promise concessions on its nuclear programme have not borne much fruit.
China, however, has remained remarkably silent about the recent missile launches.
After the first launch on July 25, the Chinese foreign ministry called on the “relevant parties” to “treasure the hard-won chances for dialogue and alleviating tensions.”
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Such an ambiguous statement offers little in the way of concrete solutions towards any real progress on the North’s nuclear programme.
Sino-North Korean relations have fluctuated in recent years, with Beijing backing UN sanctions against the North, but balancing this with increased trade with its neighbour.
For now, Xi Jinping may be thinking the same way about the recent missile launches: enough to warrant a stern warning from the big brother to the little brother, but not enough to disown him from the family completely.
Just as China was one of the winners of the Six-Party Talks – bringing the North together with its arch-enemy the US for talks that led to key agreements such as the Joint Statement of September 19, 2005 – so too will it strive to ensure that it also benefits from any future interactions with the DPRK.
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Yet, China must realise the ever-pivotal role it plays here and that the “big brother-little brother” relationship may not always be sincere.
China wants to fulfil its own national interests and be perceived as a responsible state in the international system. It cannot – and will not – let North Korea disrupt its own endeavours.
Edward Howell is an ESRC scholar in international relations at the University of Oxford, specialising in East Asia and the Korean peninsula
