US beats China in soft power and popularity in Southeast Asia, giving it regional edge: analysis
- Majority of citizens in 10 countries examined trusted Washington over Beijing, especially in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam
- China widely seen as major economic power, while the US perceived as providing significant traditional development aid
The United States enjoys greater soft power and popularity in Southeast Asia than China, presenting Washington a distinct advantage as the two giants face off in the strategically vital region, a comprehensive polling analysis released on Tuesday found.
“Washington needs to be more attuned to how individual countries perceive their relations with the United States and China and shape its levers of engagement accordingly,” the 24-page report said.
Growing concerns about Beijing’s behaviour and intentions create diplomatic and economic openings across the region, it added. “And Washington should advance a positive political, security, and economic agenda to meet the moment.”
But the report, titled “Assessing US and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia”, also noted that soft power was not the only factor at play. It argued that hard power and the ability to deliver concrete benefits also matter, though it did not weigh in on their relative effectiveness.
On this count, China was widely seen as the major economic power in every country with sufficient data for analysis, other than in the Philippines. “And the reality is that on most metrics, China is widening the economic influence gap,” the report stated.
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Past surveys have directly polled respondents. But CSIS took a different approach, opting instead to collate and weight already available regional and individual-country survey data to piece together a comprehensive picture from the granular data.
“Policymakers in Washington and regional capitals alike tend to make assumptions about Southeast Asian opinion using anecdotes or tiny elite samples, often from just a couple of countries,” the report explained.
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It recommended that the US expand surveys of the general public as well as politicians and other elites in Southeast Asia to better understand how it is perceived. It further urged Washington to target initiatives with the greatest impact and judge their progress over time.
The US could improve its regional standing and take advantage of scepticism towards China’s motives and growing footprint by engaging more diplomatically, economically and on security issues, according to Jeremy Chan, a China and Northeast Asia consultant with Eurasia Group.
“A large part of Washington’s strategy should be based on simply showing up at regional forums and offering an alternative to the Chinese model, rather than trying to compete with China on total trade and investment,” Chan said.
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As for Beijing, it “could improve its image in the region by simply toning down some of its rhetoric and maritime claims and activities”, he added, noting: “This is likely not in the offing, however.”
The findings were drawn from prior surveys by Pew Research Centre, the Lowy Institute, the Merdeka Centre, Pulse Asia and Eurasia Group, among other think tanks and consultancies.