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Presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte. Photo: Reuters

Philippines at the crossroads: What does the rise of Rodrigo Duterte say about the nation’s appetite for change?

President Aquino has warned voters that Duterte could be a dictator in the ­making and compared his emergence to the rise of Hitler.

Thirty years after emerging from a brutal dictatorship, Filipinos went to the polls yesterday facing stark choices, and duelling narratives for the future of their nation.

Will it be fast and furious under foul-mouthed front runner Rodrigo Duterte, who has promised to “butcher” criminals, or moderate reforms under the other more democratically minded contenders?

We were called the sick man of Asia before, but are Asia’s rising tiger now
President Benigno Aquino

It’s a make-or-break moment for the Southeast Asian nation, which has turned around under incumbent President Benigno Aquino with one of the highest growth rates in Asia but remains fragile with its massive poverty, inequality and insurgencies.

“We were called the sick man of Asia before, but are Asia’s rising tiger now,” Aquino said last week on a trip to campaign for the candidate he’s backing, Mar Roxas, the former ­Cabinet member who has pledged to continue his “straight path” style of reformist presidency.

“We have begun to walk and surely that would be followed with a run. But we couldn’t sprint forward

if we step back ... if we take a U-turn back to the style of martial law,” Aquino said as he criticised Duterte’s threats to close down Congress or establish a revolutionary government should he face impeachment or stonewalling legislators.

In last-minute campaigning on Saturday, Aquino warned voters that Duterte could be a dictator in the ­making and cited the rise of Hitler as an example of how a despotic leader can gain power and hold on

to it without public resistance. Filipinos have been hypersensitive to potential threats to democracy since they rose in a 1986 “people power” ­revolt that ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who faced allegations of plundering a crushingly poor country and condoning widespread human rights ­violations by state forces.

In 2001, a similar uprising forced Joseph Estrada from the presidency over ­alleged large-scale corruption.

Aquino’s parents, who are revered democracy champions, played a central role in the anti-Marcos resistance movement.

Aquino triumphed in 2010 elections with a landslide victory on a promise to fight corruption and ­poverty. After introducing new taxes, more accountability and reforms, ­including in the judiciary, and cracking down on tax evaders, the Philippines posted average GDP rates of 6.2 per cent from 2010 to 2015 to ­become one of the world’s fastest-growing economies at a time of global economic slowdown.

The country earned an investment grade from credit rating agencies and economic upswing fostered the rise of a stronger middle class. ­Although the government has reported that more than 7 million Filipinos have been lifted out of poverty during Aquino’s time in charge, more than a quarter of the country’s 100 million people remain poor.

Annual debt payments, some of them dating back to the Marcos years, and limited funds stymie infrastructure improvement and public services, including law enforcement, fueling frequent complaints.

The economy and the persistent wealth gap remain key issue for many of the nation’s 55 million voters.

There are other prosaic concerns, including the capital’s disastrous ­traffic. Manila’s commuters suffer some of the world’s longest and most tortuous commutes as packed roads and trains have crumbled after decades of underinvestment, neglect and corruption, while other basic ­services are faring little better.

The better-funded Aquino government’s efforts to catch up on infrastructure spending were hampered by frequent project delays, not helped by courts that have been criticised for interference.

There have been improvements in efforts to slay another perennial bugbear of life in the Philippines – ­corruption. Berlin-based Transparency International ranked the Philippines the 95th least corrupt out of 168 countries in its 2015 global corruption perceptions index.

That may not sound so impressive, but it is 39 places better than its 134th ranking when Aquino came to office in 2010.

Yet even though Aquino had predecessor Gloria Arroyo arrested and put on trial for vote fraud and graft, ­critics say he has barely scratched the surface and that bribes are still the fastest way to get business done.

Filipino women cast their votes at a polling centre in Manila. Photo: AFP

The Philippines is similarly plagued by two of Asia’s longest-running insurgencies. The rebellions by separatist Muslim rebels and communists have killed tens of thousands of people, and they continue to claim dozens of lives each year.

Aquino failed to secure peace on either front, although he did get close with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the biggest Muslim rebel group. All major presidential candidates have vowed to pursue peace, but with varying plans.

Yet despite this wide range of ­electoral concerns, it is the democratic future of the Philippines that

has weighed most heavily on the ­campaign, amid the rise of the ­demagogic Duterte.

Duterte’s opponents – Roxas, Senator Grace Poe, Vice-President ­Jejomar Binay and Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago – have all criticised him for remarks that threaten the rule of law and the Philippines’ hard-won democracy.

“Duterte is completely out of the system, he’s out of the box,” said Political Professor Richard Heydarian of De La Salle University in Manila, adding that in the mayor’s portrayal of social problems, “there is a gap ­between the rhetoric and reality but it’s working, it’s creating panic among a lot of people and rallying them ­behind Duterte.”

Duterte is among the strongman-type leaders who have emerged in ­recent years in developing countries like the Philippines, with his strong rhetoric resonating amid ­public insecurities, Heydarian said.

“Fear-mongering is the No 1 ­strategy of all these strongman candidates. They always say that if not for us, the country will fall apart,” he said.

I have no patience, I have no middle ground, either you kill me or I will kill you ­idiots
Rodrigo Duterte

Duterte’s campaign vow to eradicate crime, especially drug trafficking, as well as corruption in three to six months if he becomes president has won attention and support, but has also sparked alarm and doubts.

“All of you who are into drugs, you sons of bitches, I will really kill you,” Duterte told a huge cheering crowd on Saturday in his final ­campaign rally. “I have no patience, I have no middle ground, either you kill me or I will kill you ­idiots.”

Despite his devil-may-care way with expletives and irreverence and ­allegations of corruption hurled against him by a senator, Duterte led pre-election polls by more than 10 per cent over Roxas and Poe.

“I am supporting Mayor Duterte to give change a chance,” said real ­estate broker Jose Allan Bacalando, who joined the mayor’s Manila rally, adding that fears that he would ­threaten democracy “is the spiel of his enemies”.

While it remains to be seen whether Duterte is serious with his remarks about resorting to authoritarian steps to deal with opponents who would block the radical changes he would pursue in case he becomes president, Aquino and other critics say he causes alarm just by uttering them.

“We may have a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Heydarian said. “Perception makes reality in politics, unfortunately, and if the perception is Duterte wants to create a dictatorship, that will create its own dynamics.”

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse

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