Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has bought himself time with election showing but reconciliation with Pakistan still unlikely
Analysts suggest Modi will be reluctant to wager his newfound political strength by reaching out to Islamabad and risking rejection – or worse – ahead of India’s next national election in 2019
A landslide election victory and a more conciliatory army chief may not be enough to push nuclear-armed enemies India and Pakistan toward renewed talks, even as small signs of cooperation over sensitive security issues emerge.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to a majority in India’s most populous and important state on March 11. The election makes Modi the most powerful Indian politician in three decades and opens an opportunity to forge a bold new Pakistan policy, even though he lacks majority in the upper house of parliament.
Islamabad has recently shown some signs of cooperation and has a new army chief who analysts like the Eurasia Group’s Sasha Riser-Kositsky view as uninterested in meddling in politics.
The approach to Pakistan will continue to be tough, since the terrorism issue agitates the public sentiment deeply
Complicating an already fractious relationship, Pakistan is receiving US$55 billion in investment from China for a vast infrastructure corridor that stretches through the disputed region of Kashmir at a time when tensions are simmering between India and China over Beijing’s push into the contested territory. Meanwhile, earlier Indian diplomatic outreach efforts to its neighbour have been stymied by what New Delhi said are cross-border attacks from Pakistan.
It is unlikely Modi will wager his new-found political strength by reaching out to Islamabad and risking rejection – or worse – ahead of India’s next national election in 2019. Some analysts suggest his poll win may even validate India’s harder line on Pakistan.
“The approach to Pakistan will continue to be tough, since the terrorism issue agitates the public sentiment deeply, and there has been little or no give from Pakistan,” said Nirupama Rao, a former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to the US and China. “There is really no public support for dialogue with Pakistan. The field lies fallow.”
With his political strength at an all-time high, Modi “can be even more risky” with an ambitious Pakistan policy, said Harsh Pant, an international relations professor at King’s College London. However, India’s recent tough approach to Pakistan – including border attacks in September and attempts at diplomatic isolation – seems to be working, he added.
