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Analysts say China faces difficulties in developing indigenous computing power in the face of US bans on high-performance chips. Image: Shutterstock

China’s hi-tech push for computing power, AI gains must overcome glaring shortcomings, analysts say

  • A dearth of critical supplies for AI development, exacerbated by Washington’s tech-curtailment moves against China, highlights need for a unified domestic market
  • Beijing called on to boost financial support for computing industry and cultivate more talent in bid to ramp up nationwide services

Beijing needs to address deficiencies in the capacity build-up of computing power and coordinate regional and industrial resources to forge a nationwide network, according to analysts and industrial reports.

The reflection came amid Beijing’s aggressive push for the key infrastructure for future industries to close the gap with the US after OpenAI’s ChatGPT and newly released text-to-video model Sora ushered the world into a new era of artificial intelligence.

China is second only to the US in aggregated computing power and aims to scale up the computation capacity by half by 2025. But concerns have risen about a fragmented market, the lack of supply for AI development, and difficulties in developing indigenous computing power in the face of US bans on high-performance chips.

“We have yet to set up a unified market that is standard and inclusive. And we are also facing a dilemma between computing power shortage and low efficiency in usage,” Yu Xiaohui, head of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), was quoted as saying by Xinhua on Monday.

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According to data released by International Data Corporation (IDC), the growth rate of China’s public computing investment declined from 66.55 per cent in 2019 to 13.2 per cent in the first half of 2023.

A public computing service enables cost savings for businesses, governments, and individuals by eliminating the need to purchase or maintain computing infrastructure.

Meanwhile, data centres, which are mainly backed by private companies and local governments to provide computing services, saw an increase from 5.3 per cent in 2020 to 20.7 per cent in 2023, according to Gartner, a US-based consulting company.

In China, local governments or firms often opt for locally deployed private computing platforms due to concerns about data security, in contrast with the US model to focus on public cloud services, according to an article by Caijing Magazine in early March.

The fragmentation of computing power will increase the cost for companies to train AI models
Shan Guangcun, Beihang University

“The government must push faster to build up public computing services across the nation, especially by cultivating more related talents with adequate financial support for the industry,” Shan Guangcun, a professor specialising in AI, robotics and smart sensors at Beihang University in Beijing, told the Post.

“The fragmentation of computing power will increase the cost for companies to train AI models, this is not conducive to the development of China’s AI industry,” Shan said.

Beijing is looking to raise China’s share of AI computing power to 35 per cent by the end of next year from 25.4 per cent in mid-2023.

On the other hand, only 38 per cent of the capacity of data centres was used in 2022, far below the global level of 60 per cent, according to the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

CAE conceded in June that China was being challenged by “an extremely large computing-power gap”, especially in AI computing.

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It said the country was lacking a unified and open platform for sharing computing resources and operability among local computing centres, hindering the efficient flow of massive quantities of data across regions.

Industry insiders have also said disorderly competition and uncoordinated local investment may also be compromising the nation’s catch-up efforts.

“Many local governments have not considered their relative competitiveness when doing their economic planning,” Lu Ming, director of Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s Institute for National Economy, told a Shanghai-based publication, The Paper, earlier this month. “Some lack the awareness for building a digital economy ecosystem.”

State-backed media Securities Daily last week warned of the inflow of hot money into the sector, as food producers and textile makers are also marching into the AI sector.

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“[These companies] have to face the pressure of hefty initial investments, while also considering the slow conversion of computing power into cash and the uncertain developmental stage of downstream application areas,” it said. “They need to invest in the computing industry within their capacities planning, after careful consideration.”

Amid heightened tech curbs, Washington has restricted China’s access to high-performance chips, which are key for AI and model training.

“China has adapted to the computing ecosystem created by the US’ Nvidia chips over the past decade. And with the chip ban, all of this effort is shattered. It is just like asking long-term Windows users to suddenly switch to a domestically produced computer system – the two systems are not compatible,” Li Yangwei, a technical consultant working in the smart computing industry in Shenzhen.

It thus raises the urgency for China to come up with an indigenous computing power system. To that end, it needs its AI industry leaders to work together on designing such a platform, according to analysts.

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Shan of Beihang University called for joint actions from China’s leading tech firms to form a domestic industrial ecosystem, and the government should navigate such cooperation.

“The best way [to form a national computing service] is still letting tech giants cooperate, and Beijing needs to figure out how to navigate such collaboration without hurting companies’ interests, as these tech giants are also competitors in the same market,” he said.

According to the CAICT’s report published in July, more than 80 per cent of Chinese computing-power providers said that losses due to the lack of unified computing standards have accounted for more than 10 per cent of their cost.

In the past three years, the AI chip types in China have increased by more than five times, yet there are fewer than 100 computing-power companies that are compatible with different chips, which has severely constrained the application of computing power, the report said.

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