China food security: pork self-sufficiency push to raise demand for global grain stocks
- China’s self-sufficiency targets have been flagged since 2020 as part of Beijing’s food security goals
- The targets are likely to bolster overseas purchases of soybeans and feed grains needed to fatten hogs, cattle and poultry
China’s reaffirmation of a long-term goal to be almost entirely self-sufficient in pork production means it will keep scooping up global grain supplies to feed the world’s largest pig herd.
The country, which consumes half of the world’s pork, will maintain a target to produce 95 per cent of the protein at home until 2025.
The targets are likely to bolster overseas purchases of soybeans and feed grains needed to fatten hogs, cattle and poultry.
Imports of feed grain are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future as China begins to prioritise domestic production of meat and dairy
“Imports of feed grain are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future as China begins to prioritise domestic production of meat and dairy,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder and market research director of Sitonia Consulting, a China-based agriculture information service provider.
The self-sufficiency goals, which were flagged since 2020 at least, come as the deadly African swine fever outbreak about three years ago destroyed roughly half of China’s hog population and spurred a surge in meat imports and record pork prices. It accelerated a push to modernise hog production and cut costs.
Futures in Dalian are down about 50 per cent this year, underscoring the boom-bust cycle China’s pig farming industry is notorious for.
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The self-sufficiency targets are part of a series of measures to ensure stable meat supplies and prices.
The ministry said China’s consumption of livestock products will continue to grow but there will be gaps in feed grain supply and demand.
It also noted that China is “heavily reliant” on imports for soybeans.
Since the signing of the phase-one agreement, Chinese imports from the US have hit a record, however, as of the end of last month Beijing was well behind on promises made – buying little more than 59 per cent of the extra US$200 billion in manufactured, agricultural and energy goods it said it would by the end of 2021.
