The longer trade negotiations with China drag on, the more American farmers will see their window of opportunity close as global competitors claim parts of the Chinese market share.

Earlier in 2019, pig farmers in the US had some hope that the tensions between Beijing and Washington would be resolved quickly as trade negotiations seemed to be going smoothly. But in May, Trump accused China of backtracking on promises it made during months of talks, resulting in even more tariffs being placed on Chinese goods coming into the US

Right after that announcement, Chinese buyers called off orders of more than 3,000 tonnes of US pork – the biggest cancellation in more than a year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

“To put it another way, nothing like this has happened since we’ve had data to record such things,” said Feng Yonghui, chief researcher at Soozhu.com, a website for the pork industry.

Europe – the largest source of Chinese imports – has contended with its own African swine fever problems, limiting its ability to ramp up production. China would also need to pay more to lure European Union exports away from higher-income neighbours including Japan and Korea, the USDA said in a recent report.

Herds in other economies that export to China, like Vietnam, have also been afflicted with the disease. Vietnam said last month it had culled 2 million pigs in a bid to curb an outbreak of African swine fever after the virus spread to most of its provinces.

All those factors leave the US in a position that should allow it to dominate the market, said Nick Giordano, vice-president of the National Pork Producers Council. From a US farmer’s perspective, this is “the single greatest sales opportunity in our industry’s history,” Giordano said.

“We have been saying for years that if all the barriers to US pork exports in China were eliminated, that pork could single-handedly put a huge dent in the US trade imbalance with China,” he added. “Today, more than ever before, that is the case because African swine fever is ravaging the Chinese hog herd.”

Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes estimates that the trade dispute with China has cost American pig farmers US$8 per animal, or US$1 billion in total losses.

Canada and Brazil are already making inroads in filling that void, with the South American nation already improving its market share in China from 4 per cent in 2017 to 13 per cent in 2018, the USDA reported.

China’s officials have been sending mixed messages about the depth of the crisis, on the one hand saying African swine fever pig deaths and rising pork prices are under control, while on the other stepping up countermeasures to combat a dwindling pig supply.

“Our pig-raising industry has already adequately prepared, and we will deal with the effects of African swine fever,” said Cao Derong, president of the China Chamber of Commerce of Import & Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce & Animal By-Products.

He also suggested that customers would be perfectly happy to substitute pork with other meat, such as beef, chicken or seafood.

“China’s consumers can use other meat products, or other country’s meat, to replace meat imports from the United States,” Cao added, emphasising that US pork imports are relatively small and that China will continue to rely mainly on its own domestic supply. “We will never depend too much on imports for any particular product.”

E.W. Johnson of Enable AgTech, a small consultancy and animal disease testing facility in Beijing, believes that poor sanitary practises that keep the disease proliferating haven‘t changed, leading to a deepening crisis as the year wears on.

He added that the spread of the disease may slow during the summer, as the warmer environment makes it harder for the virus to spread, but it is likely to intensify again in autumn when the weather cools. That leaves the Chinese government just a few months to figure out what to do next.

If China’s tariffs on US goods remain in place, other countries will step in to fill the demand. Li Dali, a merchandiser at Qingdao New Ocean Line, a major importer of frozen meat, estimates that European market share could rise from around half of China’s meat imports to 60 per cent or 70 per cent within a year.

That means major European meat exporters – including those in Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany – will have an edge over North American providers like Canada and the US

“In the past, we have relied on two major sources of frozen meat products: Europe and North America. But right now, US imports are already very, very low,” Li said.

Canada suspects that its exports are facing retaliatory actions after it arrested a top Huawei executive at the request of the US For instance, China suspended licenses for two Canadian pork producers in May, saying products had improper labels, and this week, a third Canadian firm said its shipments have been blocked.

Feng of Soozhu.com said he expects pork prices to break records this year. Prices climbed to just over 20 yuan (US$2.90) a kilogram in April, 20 per cent higher than a year earlier, and they are likely to rise even more. In March a report by Japanese bank Nomura said prices could hit 33 yuan a kilogram by January.

“Food prices have a structure, and react to market prices. If the price of pork goes up, so do other meats, but consumers still have choices,” said Feng, adding that he did not think pork prices would rise above the 40 yuan (US$5.79) per kilogram price of beef last year.

In April, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs warned that pork may be 70 per cent more expensive in the second half of 2019. But in early June, China’s Ministry of Commerce contended that rising pork prices were “basically under control.”

China also has plans to revitalise production. In late May, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released plans to pump more loans into the industry.

Wang Dan, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing, predicted that Chinese authorities will have to take some steps to stabilise prices.

“China will have to either lower tariffs or subsidise importers,” she said. “Either way, eventually China has to import more from the US”

While Europe already supplies more than half of China’s imported pork, Wang said that increasing production out of the European Union countries will be difficult because of the bloc’s strict environmental regulations and animal welfare requirements.

“The most feasible way for China to meet its needs is to increase imports from the US,” she said.

Even after the disease is eradicated, the effects of African swine fever are expected to linger as China works to rebuild its domestic hog population.

“China will be dealing with this African swine fever for many years to come. Five years will probably be the minimal time needed for the industry to recover,” said Catherine Bertrand-Ferrandis, a spokeswoman for the World Organisation for Animal Health, which is more commonly known by the French acronym OIE.

So if the trade war is resolved in the coming months and retaliatory tariffs are dropped, American producers could try to cultivate their stake. That may leave more, but still limited, room for pork exporters like the US, said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank.

“I think this is a medium-term opportunity for overseas suppliers,” Pan added. “In the longer term, I think China could return to self sufficiency with some 5 per cent supply coming from imports.”

Keegan Elmer reports for the South China Morning Post from Beijing. Liz Crampton reports for POLITICO from Washington