West’s arming of Ukraine threatens to fuel endless cycle of violence and bloodshed in Europe and beyond

The possibility that weapons earmarked for Ukraine could be diverted and wind up on the black market in the hands of criminals and terrorists cannot be ignored
There is a dire need for the international community to find a political, negotiated solution to end the conflict before things spiral out of control

Mariam Shah

Published: 3:30am, 2 Feb 2023

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For some time now, the sale and purchase of arms has been destabilising the world and inciting an arms race across the globe. Violence continues to escalate, conflicts are on the rise and there is a visible shift to asymmetric and unconventional warfare.

Amid all this, the war-machine industry is flourishing. Even countries struggling to survive economically are spending vast sums of money on the purchase of arms and weapons.

A critical question is whether we need weapons because we have conflicts and wars, or whether we need conflicts because we make, buy and sell weapons. We should also ask what the chances are that these arms and weapons could fall into the wrong hands.

Clearly, any large-scale influx of weapons into conflict-affected areas raises concerns for peace and stability. Recent conflicts, including in Ukraine, Yemen, Syria, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, have seen massive transfers of weapons. There are concerns that these arms could fall into the wrong hands, such as criminal gangs or terrorist groups.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West has provided billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine. At a recent summit held at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, 11 countries that are part of Nato, including the United Kingdom and Poland, committed to providing a broad range of new military help to Ukraine that has been described as “unprecedented” in its scope.

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This weapons transfer has raised security concerns among some leaders. Izumi Nakamitsu, the UN’s high representative for disarmament affairs, told the Security Council in a briefing that a significant influx of weapons into conflict-hit regions raised questions about their potential diversion.

Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, claimed that weapons provided by the West to Ukraine were falling into the hands of terrorists in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The possibility that weapons earmarked for Ukraine could be diverted and wind up on the black market in the hands of criminals cannot be ignored.

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari recently said the Ukraine conflict could enable a flow of militants and weapons into the Lake Chad region, strengthening terrorist organisations. He mentioned that weaponry intended for the Ukraine war and to fight terrorism in the Sahel region of North Africa was being diverted to West Africa and ending up in the hands of terrorist organisations. This has led to an increase in the proliferation of weapons into the Lake Chad Basin.

Jaye Gaskia, chairman of the Partnership Against Violent Extremism, also sees the war in Ukraine threatening security in the African region. He said, “The longer this war goes on, the more it opens up for all [manner] of groups to be entangled with it, if not directly through financial and funding, through building solidarity and the rest, [and] the more that becomes a possibility, the more insurgent groups in the Sahel begin to find the theatre of war in Ukraine as a veritable source.”

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To halt this diversion of weapons, nations must implement comprehensive arms-control procedures. Otherwise, the result will be an endless cycle of violence and bloodshed in volatile conflict-prone regions.

There are concerns that the Russia-Ukraine war could become unmanageable. Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently voiced his fears about the “terrible war in Ukraine”. “It is also a war that can become a full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between Nato and Russia,” he said, adding that “If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong.”

Unfortunately, the situation appears to be worsening. Everyone must realise the seriousness of this downward spiral, especially the Western powers providing Ukraine with arms and fighting a proxy war with Russia on Ukrainian soil. There is a dire need for a political, negotiated solution rather than battlefields inundated with weapons, which will only prolong the conflict and put the region at risk of further wars.

The United Nations and the entire international community must find a way to end the conflict before things spiral into a vicious cycle of endless arms supplies. This will pose a greater risk of weapons being diverted, the violence spilling over and an escalation of the conflict to the rest of Europe and beyond.

The influx of large-scale heavy weapons into Ukraine raises concerns for peace and security. For post-war recovery, regional security and stability, as well as conflict prevention in other regions, it is essential to put in place adequate measures to counter the diversion of weapons. There is no military solution to the crisis in Ukraine.

The policy of flooding Ukraine with weapons will lead to further loss of life and destruction. It could lead to a protracted conflict, just like in Syria, Afghanistan and Libya. In the end, it is always the innocent people who suffer, some wounded or killed, others forced to flee their homes. It is past time to make every effort to achieve peace and end this war.

Mariam Shah is a PhD scholar in peace and conflict studies. She is a data-driven researcher and her areas of study include conflict analysis and resolution, terrorism and counterterrorism, international humanitarian law, post-war rehabilitation and military psychology