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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, pictured in Washington on January 18, is expected to visit Beijing in February. Photo: AP
Opinion
Lanxin Xiang
Lanxin Xiang

US talk of defending the ‘rules-based order’ is fooling no one

  • Washington cannot claim to want to avoid a conflict with Beijing while simultaneously pushing its vision of a US-led global order – especially when such an order insists on excluding and outcompeting China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit China early next month, but the prospect of any serious progress being made remains pretty dismal. As expected, Blinken has already styled his trip as part of US efforts to uphold the “rules-based international order”, with China as its chief strategic rival.
At the same time, White House official Kurt Campbell, the “Indo-Pacific tsar”, has been trying to convince Beijing of the necessity of building security “guardrails” to avoid a war between the two countries.
It is odd that the Biden administration seems oblivious to the fact that these two notions – building guardrails and upholding a “rules-bases-international order” – don’t exist in a symbiotic relationship but, rather, are mutually exclusive.

Members of the China policy elite in Washington, many of whom are arrogant but generally ignorant about Chinese history, have long held the view that the current rules-based international order is defined by universal values, never mind the ugly legacy attached to it. But this order is hardly inclusive and created for the benefit of humanity.

It is not even a peaceful and harmonious system, despite its benign-sounding name. All international orders are power politics by procedural means. They entrench the power of dominant states and allow them to exclude and subdue their rivals.

In fact, all major international orders of the past four centuries were led exclusively by Europeans and white peoples. They were orders of exploitation and racial exclusion, designed by dominant powers to destroy or outcompete rivals.

US President Joe Biden leaves the White House in Washington on January 13. Photo: Reuters

Indeed, the Treaty of Westphalia was designed to undermine the authority of the Catholic Church and the Holy Roman Empire. The post-Napoleonic peace established in Vienna was designed to uphold conservative monarchies to counter the rise of liberal revolutionary regimes.

The third international order, established after the Second World War and that we live under now, is based on the primacy of the first hegemonic actor in history to be a democratic but imperial state: the United States. It is sustained by a sub-imperial system, euphemistically called a democratic alliance, to perpetuate an order that is predominantly run by white people.

Hence today, the rules-based international order is not supported by a significant portion of the world’s population. Its rules are instruments of control and exclusion. It is not intended to alleviate great power rivalry, certainly not to help reduce US-China competition and confrontation, but create more problems for world peace and development.

The West’s morbid anxiety to defend such an order is driven not by any noble motive to save humanity, but by the double fear of the decline of the Christian West and “yellow peril” sentiment disguised as normal great power competition.

It is not surprising that the “Ukraine analogy” to China’s Taiwan policy, which suddenly elevates Taiwan to the position of the Berlin of the East, has become a favourite Western rhetorical tool of good versus evil, a tool invented by the neoconservatives during the George W. Bush administration.
Last October, Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of US naval operations, claimed that Beijing could launch a military assault on Taiwan in 2023 – talk of war is dominating in think tanks and government agencies.

The US desire to talk about “guardrails” is trumpeted as part of its goodwill in seeking engagement and cooperation. At the same time, while President Joe Biden has reiterated that the US does not support a “One China, One Taiwan” policy, the actions of his administration suggest otherwise. For one thing, the China head of the National Security Council seems to have even obtained a new title, senior director of China and Taiwan.

How can the two sides talk about guardrails when one side seems determined to cross the other’s red line? The American approach appears to be nothing more than a delaying tactic to buy more time before the final showdown.
The US military remains a long way from consolidating its “integrated deterrence” strategy over Taiwan. Many projects aimed at enhancing allied military “interoperability” remain vague and lack concrete action. There is no reason to believe Chinese leaders will fall into this “guardrail trap”.

02:27

Latest US delegation to visit Taiwan pushes for closer economic ties with self-ruled island

Latest US delegation to visit Taiwan pushes for closer economic ties with self-ruled island
For China, there is still a window of opportunity to contribute to the reduction of tensions and calm the warmongers in Washington. All the military projects under the umbrella of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, such as the Quad, Aukus and Five Eyes, exclude China. This unsettles China’s neighbours in Southeast Asia, and is concerning to staunch US ally South Korea.
In its recent Indo-Pacific strategy report, the South Korean government echoed Singapore and other Asean countries in calling for an inclusive Indo-Pacific strategy. China should move fast to start a regional initiative for an “inclusive Asia-Pacific”. At the same time, Beijing should lead a campaign to uphold free trade, which is also supported by major US allies in Europe.

In sum, the US and China have reached such a fundamental state of mutual distrust that it has created an insurmountable psychological obstacle to reaching any compromise over Taiwan.

Unless Washington gives up its pretension of defending the exclusive “rules-based international order”, the idea of building an inclusive and cooperative relationship is a non-starter. In this scenario, the two countries may well sleepwalk towards a catastrophic ending sooner rather than later.

Lanxin Xiang is professor emeritus of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva and a visiting scholar at the Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School

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