Why Joe Biden’s US could end up jilting Taiwan to make peace with Beijing

Biden has repeatedly walked back commitments to defend Taiwan as attempts to build alliances against Beijing see mixed success
As China’s might grows, and Biden faces growing domestic pressures, he may have to change his foreign policy strategy to make amends and cooperate with China

John F. Copper

Published: 3:30am, 26 Oct 2021

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In January, when Joe Biden became US president, he quickly went to work on cancelling Trump’s legacy. Taiwan, among Trump’s strongest Asian supporters, was expected to suffer the consequences. After all, Biden’s foreign policy work on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was not a great record of sympathy or support for the island.

Yet, Biden has offered Taiwan America’s continued support. Motivated by Beijing’s serious threat to the United States, Biden probably sees Taiwan’s democratic leadership as his enemy’s enemy. Also, Biden’s supporters on the left in the Democratic Party fancied Taiwan for its progressive policies.

So, Taipei found a new friend. But, on August 16, as the Taliban swiftly took control of Kabul, Taiwan officials wondered whether trusting Biden was a horrible mistake.

Many Taiwan residents shuddered, wondering if Washington would desert them, as leaders in Beijing suggested that Taiwan might be next.

But Taiwan is not Afghanistan. There is no cultural divide between the US and Taiwan, which poses no financial burden to America. So, trepidation about the US abandoning Taiwan dissipated.

00:00

Taiwan denounces mainland China for ‘over the top’ flights into island’s air defence zone

Yet Taipei has fresh reason to worry. Last month, when Biden spoke at the United Nations General Assembly, he did not condemn China as expected. Instead, he spoke of dealing with global warming as a team and resolving other problems that would bring the US and China together, in a message of goodwill.

Around the same time, US policy towards Huawei shifted ground. Then, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo declared that the US needed to promote trade with China, implying that commercial restrictions on China hurt the US more.

Soon after, Trade Representative Katherine Tai pushed for direct engagement on phase-one trade deal renegotiations and spoke to Vice-Premier Liu He, in what was seen as an attempt to establish dialogue. Since then, there has been talk of a Biden-Xi summit to discuss US-China relations with an eye on ending tensions and improving ties.

Notwithstanding, Biden said last Thursday that the US had a commitment to defend Taiwan, a striking departure from America’s long-standing “strategic ambiguity” policy.

00:56

China urges US President Joe Biden to act cautiously over Taiwan, warns ‘no room for compromise’

But inasmuch as he made a similar statement in August and then walked back, one can assume his latest words were in error or to please Taiwan-supporting Congress members. The White House later clarified that US policy remained unchanged.

Observers recalled that Biden had dismissed China as of little concern to the US during his election campaign, only to call it a formidable enemy once in office – and one the US may not be able to cope with without allies. He also portrayed international relations as a life-and-death struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.

In June, Biden travelled to Europe to rally democratic friends across the transatlantic security alliance. But Nato, suffering from old age, was irrelevant in Asia and reviving it to help deal with China, said experts, was wishful thinking.

The idea of a democratic alliance to cope with China’s rapid and challenging rise also generated little support. Germany and several other countries quickly pointed out that they did not intend to become anti-China. Also, funding could prove challenging for the trillion-dollar Build Back Better World plan that Biden hopes will counter China’s successful Belt and Road Initiative.

03:51

US, UK, Australia announce ‘historic’ military partnership in Pacific

Soon after, the Biden administration started work on the Aukus military alliance with Australia and Britain, to cool China’s aggressive activities in Southeast Asia.

But none of the countries there were willing to join Aukus and tilt against China. Also, US defence spending was in a deep freeze. The last budget increase was of a smaller percentage that the rise in US inflation and China’s defence budget.

The Biden administration is also working to rebuild and rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which stalled under Barack Obama’s presidency and was dropped in Donald Trump’s. The remaining partners have since agreed to a revised deal known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Explained: The CPTPP trade deal

The hope is that the US, in such a pact, could better compete against China’s growing dominance in trade and finance. Experts said this was hopelessly ambitious. After all, China is by far the world’s largest trader, with nearly 15 per cent of global trade, and the top trading partner of at least 120 countries – far ahead of the US.

Meanwhile, Biden’s ambitious spending plans at home necessitate tax rises that will seriously dampen economic growth. Estimates by the International Monetary Fund and think tanks, and even Biden himself, put US economic growth after 2022 in the 1 per cent-plus range, while China’s economy is projected to double America’s by 2050.

01:41

US ‘deeply concerned’ despite China denying it recently tested hypersonic nuclear missile

Recently, reports have emerged that China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile – which Beijing denied. The development, which would bring into question America’s missile defence system, could be very costly to fix.

Finally, Biden’s poll numbers have plummeted amid calls for the resignation of several members of his foreign policy team, and even Biden himself, over the Afghan debacle that profoundly damaged America’s image.

It appears that Biden needs to change his foreign policy strategy to make amends and cooperate with China.

That leaves Taiwan in the lurch. Will Biden jilt Taiwan, as his track record and now-desperate need for a new China policy suggest? Possibly.

John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than 35 books on China, Taiwan and US Asia policy