What to expect from elections for Hong Kong’s reformed legislature

Understandably, Beijing lost patience with lawmakers’ antics that left Legco unable to function, but the pendulum on political reform has swung too far
Order will be restored in the short term, but killing hope for the future is not good for long-term stability

Mike Rowse

Published: 1:30pm, 22 Aug 2021

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A number of interesting questions arise when looking ahead to the Legislative Council elections in December. The answers will determine the stance of the different parties as they plan their participation.

We need to start with a quick recap of what our legislature will look like after recent reforms. The number of seats will increase from 70 to 90. The Election Committee, newly expanded from 1,200 to 1,500, can elect 40 of its members to Legco. The number of functional constituency seats will be reduced from 35 to 30, with the five super seats eliminated.

The number of directly elected seats to be filled by universal suffrage will be reduced from 35 to 20; instead of five large constituencies each returning many members under the proportional representation system, there will be 10 constituencies each returning two members.

The Election Committee will comprise 982 elected members, 156 nominated ones and a further 362 ex officio members. Nominations for the first group closed earlier this month and the elections will take place in mid-September.

Given the structure and eligibility requirements of the Election Committee, it is safe to say the body will be overwhelmingly conservative. The 40 Legco members who emerge from it are likely to be of a similar disposition.

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The elimination of the five most representative functional constituencies, plus other changes to the composition of various groups, is likely to reinforce the traditional conservative bias in this category of seats. It would not be surprising if the conservative camp won more than 20 of them.

Thus, without the public involved at all by way of universal suffrage, traditional conservatives could already have sewn up a two-thirds majority in the next legislature. The slow but steady journey towards greater democracy we seemed to be on has been thrown into reverse.

With the 20 geographical seats, the vote has traditionally split roughly 60:40 in favour of pan-democrats. Under the new system, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) and its allies could pretty much guarantee winning 10 seats (one in each constituency), provided they agree to field only one candidate and throw their collective weight behind that person.

Their 40 per cent vote share would be enough to deny any other competing candidates. But there are many more than 10 sitting members of these parties, so some will have to sacrifice themselves unless they have secured membership via some other route.

But it might not be possible for the DAB, the Federation of Trade Unions and New People’s Party to reach an agreement. Even if they do, some of those who don’t make the final list could decide to run as independents.

The Liberal Party might also field a candidate somewhere, further complicating the situation. The conservatives could quietly nominate a second candidate in each constituency, in case the democrats’ rumoured boycott became a reality.

Moreover, the questions on the democratic side are equally important and could affect the conservative side’s calculations. The League of Social Democrats, for example, has announced it will not field any candidates.

The existential dilemma facing Hong Kong’s last major opposition party

The Civic Party’s candidates, if any, would run the risk of disqualification in the new vetting process: their leaders did, after all, urge sanctions by the US Congress against Chinese and Hong Kong officials. The Labour Party may also struggle to get its nominations accepted, given that one of its leaders is in jail.

The Democratic Party is understood to be seriously split on the issue with most members favouring not standing. Even if that becomes the party’s official position at its general meeting scheduled for September, the possibility of some Young Turks quitting the party to run anyway is a real prospect.

Outside the mainstream democrats, there is also the possibility of some “soft yellow” parties emerging to field candidates, for example, Frederick Fung Kin-kee’s Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood.

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Another possibility is the use of surrogates. If the Democratic Party does not want to sully its hands, to appease its hard-core members, it could find independents to run in each constituency. The party’s behind-the-scenes support could be made known so the “60 per cent” of voters know what to do.

The argument advanced by some for not taking part is that it would lend legitimacy to a blatantly unfair and undemocratic system. They argue that the reforms this year take the community further away from the ideal of greater democracy.

The argument in favour of participation is existential: if your party is not in business to contest elections, what is its purpose?

Beijing’s radical reforms dash decades of hopes for Hong Kong democracy

I understand why Beijing lost patience with the shenanigans in Legco that rendered the body incapable of functioning, but I think the pendulum on political reform has swung too far. It restores order in the short term, but kills hope for the future, which is not good for stability in the longer term.

Which brings us to the other great unknown factor: the attitude of Hong Kong voters. One way or another, they will silently make their views known. The turnout percentage will be eagerly watched. If the number is high, it could indicate that people are happy with the return of tranquillity.

If, on the other hand, they stay away from the polls in large numbers, that would be saying something else. The question then becomes whether anyone is listening.

Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises