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Opinion
Klaus W. Larres and Lea Thome
Klaus W. Larres and Lea Thome
China is betting its charm offensive can turn Europe away from US
- Despite recent improvements in relations with the US, China is increasingly focused on building relations with Europe as it seeks more global partners
- Europe’s priority in China’s eyes is clear, but swaying EU members towards Beijing will be hard given a long-standing US alliance and European trade concerns
Amid multiple sources of conflict around the world, there seems to be one bright spot. Since the November 2023 meeting at the Apec summit between US President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping, the downward spiral in US-China relations has been somewhat halted.
Even so, Beijing seems convinced that constructive relations with the US can no longer be maintained beyond a superficial level of engagement. As outlined in its Global Security Initiative, Beijing now sees itself as a force for stability and security in a world that has moved beyond the need for the US.
This makes relations with the European Union and its 27 member states crucial for China in its search for global partners in an increasingly polarised world. It also goes some way to explaining why the world is witnessing a Chinese charm offensive for the soul of Europe.
In addition to meeting European leaders or foreign ministers at the Munich Security Conference, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made visits to France and Spain. While the conference launched its annual report in the context of “lose-lose” dynamics, Wang was determined to turn his attendance at the conference into a “win-win” situation.
Despite China’s support of Russia in the midst of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine, the effective failure of its 12-point peace proposal and Beijing’s passivity in the Red Sea crisis, Wang highlighted China’s desire to act as a “staunch force for stability” in the world. More importantly, he focused on the future of EU-China cooperation, saying “China and Europe are the world’s two major forces, markets and civilisations”.
With an eye on the US and the re-establishment of close transatlantic relations under the Biden administration, Wang said it was “imperative that China and Europe stay clear of geopolitical and ideological distractions, see each other as partners rather than rivals and join hands to inject positive energy into a volatile world and point the way for overcoming difficulties together”.
The elephant in the room was the potential return of Donald Trump after the US election in November. A drastic change in Washington’s foreign policy could make Europe forge ahead with a more independent global policy, which would benefit China. Beijing appears to be preparing for the eventual realisation of European “strategic autonomy”, as long advocated by France’s lingering Gaullist foreign policy tendencies.
Wang subsequently met several European policymakers, including the EU’s High Representative for External Affairs Josep Borrell, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. China’s message for all these meetings highlighted the need for each side to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation and bilateral development.
Wang’s carefully orchestrated meeting agenda at the Munich conference was indicative of China’s re-prioritisation of Europe in its foreign policy agenda. Although the Group of 20 foreign ministers meeting took place at the same time, Wang chose to attend the meetings in Europe and sent Vice-Minister Ma Zhaoxu to Brazil instead.
After China’s harsh “zero-Covid” pandemic policy, it has reinforced its efforts to appear at important international venues and symbolise to the world that China is open again for business.
Next on Wang’s schedule was a short trip to Madrid to meet Spain’s King Felipe VI, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares. The two sides agreed to “fair, just and non-discriminatory business relations” and Beijing lifted its 24-year ban on beef imports from Spain.
The last stop of Wang’s European tour was in Paris, where he met French President Emmanuel Macron and other officials. Not surprisingly, among the topics discussed were the promotion of free and fair trade as well as deepening strategic coordination.
The true battleground in the US-China cold war will be in Europe
The true battleground in the US-China cold war will be in Europe
Wang advocated that Paris and the EU need to play an independent and “constructive role” in world affairs, while Macron told him that China needed to put pressure on Russia “to return to the negotiating table” with a credible offer to end the Ukraine war.
The nations Wang visited are among the most diplomatically active countries within the EU. Most recently, they have taken a similar route through creating new strategies towards China and committing to ‘de-risking’. Beijing might hope Berlin and Paris will turn towards China in the wake of a potentially isolationist second Trump administration, but Germany and France abandoning their long-standing ally in favour of China is unlikely.
While the foreign minister was busy in western Europe, Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong travelled to Budapest to meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. While there, he also met Hungarian Interior Minister Sandor Pinter to finalise agreements on law enforcement and security cooperation.
Beijing might view this as a successful first step in efforts to forge closer ties with European states, though Hungary is something of an outlier among EU members and has aligned itself more closely with autocratic governments in recent years.
Following the foreign minister’s European tour, Chinese and European officials met in Brussels to discuss cooperating on matters such as automobiles and critical minerals.
Nothing has been set in stone for Sino-European relations, though, especially with the EU’s decision to blacklist some Chinese firms for aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Regardless of whether the US remains a dependable ally, Europe must decide how to forge its own path in the coming months. Whether China’s charm offensive has been effective in reversing the growing push in Europe to “de-risk” relations and turning the tide in China’s favour remains uncertain.
Klaus W. Larres, PhD, is the Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professor of History and International Affairs at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, NC.
Lea Thome is the Schwarzman Fellow at the Wilson Centre, affiliated with the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
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