South China Sea: collision takes three-way game of chicken closer to the brink for Philippines, US and China
China’s latest action raises tit-for-tat to new level as Manila deepens military cooperation with the US and threatens to invoke the mutual defence treaty
This escalation should come as no surprise to the Philippines, given it has chosen to draw closer to the US militarily
Mass media in the region and beyond have been blaring out news of the latest China-Philippines incident in the South China Sea, in which a Chinese coastguard vessel and a civilian but navy-crewed Philippine supply ship collided. The Philippines is whining and wailing about China’s increased aggressiveness. But this should not be a surprise.
The incident, which occurred in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, is not about who is legally right or wrong – each side accuses the other of being at fault.
Rather, it is a result of basing foreign policy on theoretical legal principles and hopes. It is about reality. As my union agent used to say, “you can’t eat principle”. The Philippines knew what was likely to happen if it chose to side with the US, especially militarily. It is reaping the results of that choice.
This particular incident raised eyebrows and tensions because it was more serious. But the onus is on China, for having its coastguard try to prevent the Philippines from resupplying its troops, who are stationed on a deteriorating naval vessel at Second Thomas Shoal, intentionally run aground as a symbol of its ownership.
China’s blocking violated the Philippines’ freedom of navigation. Making the situation worse, the Philippines had invited the media on board one of its vessels to video and report on China’s expected transgressions.
China’s latest action raised the tit-for-tat to a new level. It is enforcing its claim to all features in the South China Sea and most of the waters, based on its 10-dash line historic claim. Legally, its claim to features above water at high tide like Scarborough Shoal is just as strong or weak as that of the Philippines and others like Vietnam.
02:03
Beijing and Manila trade blame over ‘provocative’ moves with ship collisions near disputed shoal
Beijing and Manila trade blame over ‘provocative’ moves with ship collisions near disputed shoal
In 2016, China’s claim to ocean space beyond high-tide features and their 12-nautical-mile territorial seas was rejected by an international tribunal acting on a complaint filed by the Philippines – seemingly with US urging and legal assistance. Predictably, China considers that decision null and void and Philippine actions to implement it as “provocations”.
Moreover, there is no machinery to enforce the tribunal’s decision. The Philippines legal team knew this. The verdict is a hollow victory against the realpolitik of China’s overwhelming military and economic might.
Former president Rodrigo Duterte realised this and tried to balance Philippine foreign policy between China and the US. This included not trying to enforce the ruling. Confrontations were reduced and relations were stabilised.
But new President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr upset that balance by drawing the Philippines closer to the US militarily, distancing it from China. China now sees the Philippines as a node in the US-led security architecture designed to contain China. It is no wonder that China has reacted this way.
02:05
US and Philippines launch ‘biggest ever’ joint marine exercises near disputed waters
US and Philippines launch ‘biggest ever’ joint marine exercises near disputed waters
Under Marcos Jnr, the Philippines has agreed to let US troops use four more bases in the country, adding to the five the US accesses. The US will also sell more military equipment to the Philippines and provide more troop training. To top it off, the Philippines and the US will soon conduct joint military patrols in the South China Sea.
As expected, China has responded by blocking Philippine vessels from resupplying its troops on Second Thomas Shoal and Commodore Reef, using lasers, water cannons and general harassment by its coastguard and maritime militia. It has also used floating barriers to block Philippine fishermen from the lagoon at Scarborough Shoal despite the arbitration ruling that it should not do so.
The Philippines may be hoping to provoke China and trigger its mutual defence treaty with the US, which provides that the US will come to the aid of the Philippines if its public vessels, including the coastguard, aircraft or troops, are attacked. Although the US has repeatedly issued warnings to China, including after this latest incident, no Chinese action has so far been deemed an “attack” by the US.
However, the US does seem to be salami-slicing its military response. In a similar incident last month, a US navy surveillance plane flew overhead and sent out a broadcast saying: “This is a US Navy aircraft in the vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal observing all activities between Filipino and PRC [People’s Republic of China] coastguard vessels to include … any unsafe or unprofessional actions.”
In the latest incident, despite the collision, the saving grace was that the Chinese and Philippine coastguard vessels avoided a direct confrontation, which might have triggered the mutual defence treaty and a wider, deeper conflict between China and the US.
China-US relations are poor in general as well as in regard to the South China Sea. Their militaries are not communicating. The intensifying cycle involving the US and China consists of reciprocal warnings, threats, sabre rattling and power displays. Diplomatic efforts to reestablish military channels and avoid confrontations have largely been unsuccessful.
Philippine appeals to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its members for support have produced only words. The Philippines seems very much on its own, even as this three-way game of chicken has brought all parties to the brink.
Manila is now considering filing a new complaint for international adjudication. It is also contemplating whether to use its navy to accompany its supply boats, or ask US assets to accompany them – or even invoke its mutual defence treaty with the US, a move that would elevate tensions and incite Beijing’s wrath. Stay tuned for the next step in this dangerous dance.
Mark J. Valencia is a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance
