Trudeau’s attempts to needle Modi over Hardeep Singh Nijjar killing risk Western unity

The diplomatic rift has landed the US and its G7 partners in hot water as they need to balance between an emerging partner in India and an old ally in Canada
Without convincing evidence and a public trial over the killing, Ottawa can’t expect its friends to risk important ties with New Delhi

Chirayu Thakkar

Published: 6:30pm, 19 Oct 2023

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When was the last time you saw a Canadian prime minister running from pillar to post to shore up support for his political cause? Perhaps never in recent history – until now.

With seemingly little support forthcoming from fellow Group of Seven (G7) countries, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it his mission to take the diplomatic row with India over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar to every world leader he talks to. However, the question is whether Trudeau can needle Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

On September 18, Trudeau stood in parliament and said there were “credible allegations potentially linking” agents of the Indian government to the assassination of Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist leader.

Nijjar’s political outfit seeks a homeland called Khalistan in the Indian state of Punjab. The Khalistan movement resonates largely with the diaspora, with little support in Punjab itself.

Since airing those allegations, Canada-India ties have been in a continuous tailspin with mutual recriminations and diplomatic expulsions. India has demanded a reduction in Canada’s diplomatic presence in the country by nearly two-thirds. New Delhi has called the allegations “absurd and motivated” and in turn accused Canada of providing a safe haven for terrorists.

This diplomatic rift has landed countries such as the United States and its G7 partners in hot water as they need to balance between an emerging partner in India, which they are courting strongly to balance against China, and an old ally in Canada. Of Canada’s allies, only the US has publicly urged New Delhi to cooperate with the investigation, while others have merely expressed concerns. Britain has said is not prepared to terminate trade talks with India over the allegations.

Why is it so hard for Trudeau to marshal allies? In short, it appears to be a half-baked case against a heavyweight partner. The case relies on intelligence that has not been made public. When Trudeau made his claims, many observers assumed he would not have rocked the boat with India without solid evidence.

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Some thought Canada would build a case against India through a “media drip”, the way Turkey leaked evidence against Saudi Arabia over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Nothing has emerged yet.

One would assume that Canada would complete the investigation, proceed with trials based on available evidence and then try to take aim at New Delhi. It seems the indictment was announced to save the government from public embarrassment after the media got hold of the story. A government investigation trailing a media trial would have damaged the Trudeau government’s public standing.

Without convincing evidence, Canada’s allies are unlikely to be willing to disrupt ties with New Delhi. India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, and is growing. For the US and its allies, it is also a vital pillar to their growing Indo-Pacific strategy.

One cannot ignore the politics behind Trudeau’s move. He has been conspicuously silent on other alleged political assassinations – for instance, Pakistani human rights activist Karima Baloch – or reluctant to act against claims of Chinese interference in Canadian elections.

It is possible Trudeau thought that attacking Modi – who regularly receives criticism over his ethno-nationalist domestic policies – and making him a pariah like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be relatively easy. If successful, it would have bolstered his domestic and global standing.

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Pakistan would be too weak a target and any move would risk alienating Muslim voters at home. Taking on Beijing could backfire economically, as seen by Australia’s extended trade dispute with China.

The plan doesn’t appear to have worked; Trudeau’s diplomatic efforts have failed to secure a single public condemnation of India. Earlier this month, he raised the issue with the rulers of the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, but the Gulf states are unlikely to want to jeopardise ties with India when even Canada’s closest allies are keeping their distance.

Moving ahead, there are three options for Canada. First, Ottawa could bring evidence to the public domain through a trial at home. The moral high ground and narrative of a rules-based order alone will not win the battle. But compelling evidence would force New Delhi to cooperate and see allies coalesce around Canada. It would be an uphill task, but this remains the only path to justice.

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Second, Canada and India could both refuse to blink as neither believes they have anything to lose. Canada-India bilateral trade stands at just US$8 billion. Canada is, however, a popular higher-education destination for Indian students, who are a vital source of income for Canadian universities. As neither side can weaponise trade or mobility, the issue would probably remain a stalemate until the 2025 elections in Canada, which could bring a diplomatic reset.

Third, a mutual ally such as the US could find an off-ramp for both, and Canada would choose to sit at the table with India. Under such a situation, with no additional leverage at its disposal, Canada would have to reciprocally address India’s concerns.

New Delhi feels that the rule of law cannot be a one-way street, especially when the current attitude in Ottawa panders to elements that have been accused of attacking Indian missions and espousing violent behaviour. In this context, meeting India halfway seems inconceivable for Trudeau.

Whatever course Trudeau chooses, Canada’s allies hope his attempt at needling Modi does not cost the broader alliance in the Indo-Pacific. Otherwise, it would be a Pyrrhic victory for the global rules-based order.

Chirayu Thakkar is a doctoral candidate jointly with the National University of Singapore and King’s College London