South China Sea: showdown at Second Thomas Shoal may be hard to avoid

The recent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coastguard ships near the shoal raise questions about whether a more heated conflict is inevitable
Western powers committing to joint patrols of the area with the Philippines only ups the ante

Mark J. Valencia

Published: 6:15am, 1 Sep 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

Last week, China, the Philippines and its US ally avoided a showdown at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. How was it avoided and what happens next?

On August 5, a Chinese coastguard vessel used a water cannon in an attempt to prevent boats being escorted by the Philippine coastguard from delivering supplies to troops on the BRP Sierra Madre that had been deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal in the 1990s.

This was followed by widespread reporting and condemnation of China’s actions. Beijing also claims the submerged reef as part of its historic claim to much of the South China Sea.

The US has vowed to back the Philippines under its Mutual Defence Treaty if its public vessels – including those of its coastguard – are attacked. The Philippines announced it would try again – and did on August 22.

Given the history and context, this attempt to deliver supplies was a challenge to China. A confrontation seemed imminent. Something had to give – and it did.

Two Philippine coastguard vessels accompanied the boats carrying the supplies. A Chinese coastguard radio operator warned the Philippine coastguard vessels to leave or “bear full responsibility for all the consequences”. This threat was ominous because China’s coastguard is now authorised to “use all necessary means”, including weapons, to enforce China’s maritime claims.

The Chinese coastguard ships repeatedly crossed the bows of the Philippine coastguard vessels. Eventually, the two Philippine supply vessels were able to approach the Sierra Madre and deliver their cargo. All the while, a US surveillance plane circled overhead.

The Philippines said the mission was the exercise of its “sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction within our maritime zones” and “not subject to any other country’s approval”. Manila had invited a group of journalists to join the mission, and the incident was widely reported in the West.

02:13

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

So what changed to avoid a confrontation between the protagonists? China said it allowed the supply boats to proceed under “humanitarian” considerations, since the vessels “did not carry illegal building materials used for large-scale reinforcement”, and that it was a “temporary special arrangement”.

It is not clear whether the supply vessels were allowed to pass or if they outmanoeuvred the Chinese coastguard. If the latter, China is rationalising the result. It did demonstrate its control of the area in that the Chinese coastguard vessels did not leave until after the Philippine coastguard vessels had left.

Even if China showed relative restraint this time, was this a one-off or the new status quo? Neither China nor the Philippines are likely to accept such a status quo and this game of chicken is certainly not over.

The problem for the Philippines is that, according to a 2016 ruling by a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, the feature is on its continental shelf and in its exclusive economic zone and to accept the new “status quo” would mean that it is implicitly recognising China’s claim. But because the shoal is submerged, China’s recognition of the Philippine claim would negate its own historical claim to much of the South China Sea.

03:23

The South China Sea dispute explained

China has called for the Philippines to honour its “promise” to remove the BP Sierra Madre. The Philippines denied that it ever made such a promise. As if throwing down the gauntlet, General Romeo Brawner Jnr, chief of the Philippines armed forces, said he was considering making improvements to the dilapidated ship, something China vehemently opposes.

The potential for a showdown involving the US still exists. The Philippines has said that the missions will continue “on a regular basis”. After the August 23 incident, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, said the US is prepared to assist the Philippines if China interferes with Manila’s efforts to resupply its forces on the Sierra Madre.

Vice-Admiral Karl Thomas, commander of the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said China’s behaviour must be challenged and checked, and that his “forces are out here for a reason”. He assured the Philippines of backing in the face of “shared challenges”.

On the heels of the latest incident, the US, Japan, the Philippines and Australia held a joint exercise in the South China Sea. The Philippines’ ambassador to the US said US-Philippine joint patrols are likely to begin later this year. Australia’s defence minister also said his country would work with the Philippines on joint patrols.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles (rear) and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr (centre) watch a large-scale combined amphibious assault exercise on August 25, at a naval base in San Antonio, Zambales. Australian and Filipino forces, backed by US Marines, practised retaking an island seized by hostile forces in a large military drill on the northwestern Philippine coast facing the disputed South China Sea. Photo: AP

If the US does take part in a joint patrol, it would probably use a coastguard vessel. What happens next is anyone’s guess – perhaps water cannon and manoeuvring contests between coastguards. This would be the top rung on the “grey” scale and could easily and quickly transition into the use of navy ships by both sides.

Warmongers are calling for the US to back up its words with action. The US seems to be counting on the Philippines not to escalate the situation or, if it does, on China backing down because of the US threat. This could well be a miscalculation.

The convergence of tactical trajectories may well lead to a showdown at Second Thomas Shoal. The next move is in the hands of the Philippines or China. Stay tuned.

Mark J. Valencia is a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance