Domestic politics will take sting out of US-China tensions as 2024 presidential race heats up

China is unlikely to top US presidential candidates’ talking points as concerns over domestic politics, the economy and the Supreme Court take precedence
Expect both sides to hedge their bets and defer any significant agreements as stable relations and market access are in their short-term interest

James David Spellman

Published: 1:00am, 2 Sep 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

This Labour Day weekend marks summer’s unofficial end for Americans and the shift into high gear for the 2024 US presidential race. With partisan loyalty high, a sharply divided electorate means a fierce and costly duel for a sliver of swing voters in battleground states – a likely replay of 2020 without the pandemic-crippled economy.

Being “tough on China” will again figure in campaign rhetoric. Clashes over Taiwan, trade, relations with Russia and the US military presence in Asia will inevitably play out, drawing candidates’ rebukes. House of Representatives committee hearings on China will fuel reporters’ questions. Promises to fend off China’s threats to US competitiveness will easily draw applause in stump speeches, since more than 80 per cent of Americans hold unfavourable views of China.

Nevertheless, US-China relations will not be the fault line between the candidates in 2024 that it was in 2020. Republican hopeful Donald Trump has said he will “tax China to build up America”. Incumbent US President Joe Biden will counter that he is far more clever, citing his prohibitions on both chip exports and defence-sensitive investments as anti-China tactics.

However, the contest is instead shaping up to be about domestic concerns. The focus will be on presidential power usurping constitutional limits to undermine democracy; accelerating or pushing back the conservative agenda after landmark decisions by the Supreme Court against reproductive rights and affirmative action; and technological threats from untrustworthy rivals.

Before detailing his stance on those issues, Biden must first address the disconnect between the successes of “Bidenomics” and Americans’ views of his presidency. The incumbent remains remarkably low in opinion polling despite full employment, falling inflation and signs that artificial intelligence could power an unprecedented multi-year boom. About half of Democrats do not want him to be the party’s nominee, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows.

03:00

US President Joe Biden confirms 2024 re-election bid through campaign video ad

A solid economic outlook typically means an incumbent’s re-election is a foregone conclusion, but not this time. Biden’s message of “America is back” isn’t resonating.

One possible reason is that voters are focused on other issues now that inflation, their top economic worry, has subsided and they feel better about their financial security. Recent Gallup polling found that governance and leadership were their top concern, perhaps reflecting frustration over a split Congress risking defaulting on US debt payments earlier this year. That led Fitch Ratings to downgrade the US credit rating by one notch in early August.

The age of the leading candidates is another concern. Biden is 80 years old, and even in his carefully orchestrated public appearances he shows signs of being an elderly man who sometimes seems vacant, loses his train of thought and moves with a stiff gait. Trump is only three years younger and also shows signs of fatigue. If Republicans choose him, as seems likely, the pair would be some of the oldest candidates for president in US history.

Biden’s age puts the focus on Vice-President Kamala Harris, who would become president if Biden is unable to perform his duties. Her unpopularity is on a par with Biden’s. US vice-presidents are typically relegated to minor roles that make it hard to amass supporters, but the recent book The Fight of His Life, about the Biden administration, portrays her as insecure and struggling to master public policy intricacies while failing to keep the faith of Democrats in Congress.

US President Joe Biden (left) and Vice-President Kamala Harris (centre) greet Nasa administrator Bill Nelson after an event in the East Room of the White House in Washington on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Meanwhile, in the Republican camp, Trump faces four criminal indictments and a series of civil lawsuits. His many legal problems have galvanised his opponents, but a USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that his supporters are unmoved as more than half of Republicans and independents said they had no effect on their willingness to vote for him.

Trump’s most viable opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is melting faster than ice cream in summer. Campaign contributions aren’t flowing in as quickly as they used to, and he has cut several campaign staff. During the first Republican primary debate last week, which included seven other candidates but not Trump, he failed to score a breakthrough.

The first test for Republicans comes on January 15 at the Iowa caucuses. The winner in Iowa will build momentum to lead the rapid succession of primaries through to June. Trump leads in the fundraising race, but legal fees are draining his coffers.

While the domestic political race heats up, Biden must also heed calls from US business leaders to maintain a floor in relations with China. American firms source many of the components they need from China, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts that China will be one of the top contributors to global growth in the next few years.

Bidenomics needs better sales pitch to win US voters in 2024

Being both president and a candidate simultaneously will complicate Biden’s life in the months ahead. This is one of the reasons his administration is trying to establish better communications channels with Beijing to ensure “a basic, stable foundation”. It also helps explain why Biden has moved to restrict US investment in China in businesses with military applications, erecting a “high fence” around a “small yard”, as National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan put it.

Just as Biden is moving to hedge the US relationship with China, the opposite will also happen. China needs access to US markets and those of its allies to revive its struggling economy as exports fall and companies diversify manufacturing locations. Beijing needs the floor in relations, too, but it’s doubtful either side will enter into any significant agreements until after November 2024.

US-China relations will simmer without significant change during the campaigning ahead as candidates work to win Americans’ votes with their positions on domestic issues.

James David Spellman, a graduate of Oxford University, is principal of Strategic Communications LLC, a consulting firm based in Washington, DC