Brics’ biggest challenge in the near term is not falling apart

The biggest challenge now facing the bloc is not whether it can reform global governance or introduce a common currency, but whether it can remain united and focused without the politics of future members steering it off course

Abishur Prakash

Published: 6:15am, 31 Aug 2023

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In mid-August, the front runner in Argentina’s presidential race, Javier Milei, called for radical changes. If elected, he would bring Argentina closer to the US, reform trade with Brazil, freeze ties with socialist countries, leave the Mercosur trading group, and end Argentina’s relationship with China. Milei referred to China as an “assassin”, pointing fingers at the Chinese government for not respecting people’s freedoms.

A little more than a week later, it was announced that Argentina would join Brics, a grouping that currently comprises Brazil, China, India and Russia, in addition to South Africa. If Milei is elected as Argentina’s next leader, it will not just create challenges for South America, but for Brics as well.

Brics+ was inevitable. But the nations that have been added – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – bring a new sense of uncertainty and fragmentation to the bloc.

By expanding the group the way it has, Brics has actually become more fragile than it has ever been. Its future is truly unknown.

There are several reasons for this. First, since its inception, Brics has been a grouping of new economic powers who shared objectives in areas like development and trade.

But, by adding Iran, the environment within Brics fundamentally changes. China and Russia are already facing off with the United States in their own ways. The inclusion of Iran, however, creates a new “axis” within Brics with the US as the core antagonist.

These three nations will push ideas that make Brics less about the Global South rising up and more about fighting the US-led world order – that is, evading sanctions.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi addresses the Brics Summit, in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 24. The Brics leaders announced that they would welcome six new members in January next year: Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Photo: AP

Second, and connected to the first, is that as the environment within Brics changes, and becomes more about clashing with the West, it will put one nation in a very awkward position: India.

The other major economic power in the group besides China and Russia, India will see its main geopolitical bloc potentially derailed by expansion. New Delhi does not have any inclination to become an anti-US or anti-Western power.

For most of India’s history, non-alignment and neutrality have been the guiding principles. Will India oppose whatever the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis pushes, from energy to security? And, if India is outvoted or outmanoeuvred, pushing New Delhi in a direction it does not like, will India stay in Brics or leave?

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Third, in the months preceding the Brics gathering in South Africa, dozens of nations were said to be eager to join the grouping. It seemed like everybody wanted in. In reality, however, the picture is quite different. Some countries now seem to be ambivalent about Brics membership, like Indonesia, a rising economic leader, whose president said his nation does not want to rush into joining the grouping.

Perhaps, Indonesia wants to maintain its non-alignment stance. This leads to a different question: who does joining Brics align a nation with?

Rejecting Brics membership is akin to South Korea or Australia saying they are not interested in joining the G7 as full members. Behind the words is a different message: the group is not important to us. Is Brics already losing its attractiveness?

Expanded Brics’ key message: West is not the only show in town

Fourth, and lastly, through expansion, Brics will be forced onto battlefields it might not be ready for. If Israel takes action against Iran, if the conflict in Libya spills over into Egypt, or the war in Sudan spills over into Ethiopia, it will complicate matters for the Brics grouping.

Is Brics ready to deal with these kinds of challenges beyond diplomacy? Would Brics be prepared to marshal resources, from sending in Brics peacekeepers or establishing Brics emergency funds, to keep its members stable? Such steps, even if intended to bring calm, could generate their own shock waves.

South African delegates sit behind a glass with the Brics logo during the Brics summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 23. Photo: Reuters

But, one thing is for sure, Brics’ decision to expand may create headaches in the short term. The biggest challenge facing Brics is not whether it can reform global governance or introduce a common currency. The more pressing issue is whether Brics nations can keep the bloc united, focused and above water, without the politics of future members, such as Argentina and Iran, taking the boat off course.

And all of this is just after the first round of expansion. The next round could add yet another layer of fragmentation and uncertainty to the group. Through expansion, Brics is accelerating in a new direction. There is no turning back.

Many nations are now playing the waiting game when it comes to Brics. Countries like China and India are no longer the new kids on the block. The real showdown between the established order and new order is just beginning. And nobody wants to bet the wrong way. From the Western nations to emerging powers, everybody will be watching Brics+ to see what transpires.

And, if nothing happens, the next time Brics meets, it might be under clouds of regret.

Abishur Prakash is the CEO of The Geopolitical Business, an advisory firm in Toronto