Hong Kong 2.0 must deliver certainty and hope amid US-China volatility
Despite the restored stability and enthusiasm, the perception of uncertainty continues with national security concerns made more acute by geopolitical tensions
This paradox will test the government’s ability to manage uncertainties and maintain an open city of freedom, diversity and inclusiveness
The telling of a good Hong Kong story can no longer rely on past scripts because circumstances have changed.
Hong Kong’s rise from a trading outpost to a global financial hub was an economic miracle. In the good old days, the city enjoyed the best of both worlds: part of China yet distinctly different under “one country, two systems”. It was valued by Beijing for its global prominence, and by the world as a major gateway to mainland China and the rest of Asia.
Today, the city has become uptight and risks losing its glamour. It desperately needs a new formula for growth and a broadened economic base. After the 2019 political unrest, which China condemns as subversive and separatist, a national security law was imposed and electoral rules rewritten.
Stability seems to have been restored but uncertainty continues. Many talk of Singapore, Shanghai and Shenzhen outshining Hong Kong. The brain drain is hurting. A think tank survey a year ago found that 47 per cent of young people were pessimistic about the city’s future.
More detrimental is the worsening geopolitics and escalating US-China conflict feeding the “China threat” conspiracy. According to a Pew Research Centre survey last year, an average 68 per cent across 19 countries viewed China negatively even as many believed its influence was rising.
Reflecting Western scepticism, The Economist played up the “peak China” theory in a May report, concluding that Hong Kong had lost out to Singapore. Hong Kong faces distancing by the US-led Western camp, which seeks to decouple from China in the name of “de-risking”.
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How the mighty US is a bully on the back of little Hong Kong
How the mighty US is a bully on the back of little Hong Kong
The deeper complex lies in the West’s belief that they have been wrong-footed about China’s reforms in assuming it would go the Western way. If they see no future in China, they will dump Hong Kong, so the logic goes. Doomsayers predict the city’s demise.
But Hong Kong’s fundamentals do not lend credence to such fatalism. Housing affordability aside, performance indicators on health, education, municipal management and public transport are internationally enviable. Universities and professional services are world class. Cultural and performing arts thrive.
The city’s competitiveness ranks among the world’s top 10. Government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption stand out, according to the World Bank’s global governance indicators. The shortfall lies in “voice and accountability” and “political stability”.
Post-pandemic Hong Kong is back in business. Unemployment has dropped to a low of 2.9 per cent. Policy packages have been rolled out to stimulate the economy and lure external investment. Ambitious plans abound for new infrastructure, reclamation and a new Northern Metropolis, as well as expanding STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education to support and nurture an innovation and technology hub.
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High hopes for China’s Greater Bay Area, but integrating 11 cities will pose challenges
High hopes for China’s Greater Bay Area, but integrating 11 cities will pose challenges
Government officials and business leaders speak of immense opportunities within the Greater Bay Area. An immediate challenge is the shortage of professionals and labour; hence new schemes to attract talent and enlarge labour imports.
Critics argue that Hong Kong may seem normal and vibrant but has lost the spark previously kindled by free expression and political pluralism.
There is indeed tension between the national security law and freedoms. But all countries have similar laws. It depends on how the law is enforced and how the courts rule and establish jurisprudence.
Here lies the paradox: pessimism and uncertainty sit alongside enthusiasm. It’s all about politics and perceptions, which would test the government’s art of uncertainty management – delivering certainties and hope in a volatile environment.
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One year with Hong Kong leader John Lee: Is he on the right track? | Talking Post with Yonden Lhatoo
One year with Hong Kong leader John Lee: Is he on the right track? | Talking Post with Yonden Lhatoo
The crux is China’s future. Three points are important. First, China’s rise cannot be halted easily by external actions. Its manufacturing and innovation technology capacities remain strong despite demand and investment disruptions.
Second, its socialist system, like it or not, has resilience. China is a huge country with uneven development, regional disparity and structural contradictions. Hence the need for continuous reform. The party-state sometimes makes poor policy choices but has the capacity to rectify them. It has defied doomsday predictions.
Third, China is not exporting its system but simply behaving as a normal great power seeking to revise the rules of engagement. The current Sinophobia, like Islamophobia, grows out of vicious politics, ill understanding and hysteria.
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Premier Li Qiang plays up China’s economic prospects at World Economic Forum’s ‘Summer Davos’
Premier Li Qiang plays up China’s economic prospects at World Economic Forum’s ‘Summer Davos’
The real world is highly interdependent. Decoupling hurts everyone, not least climate cooperation. As the International Monetary Fund pointed out, a slow-growing China is a drag on global economic recovery. A world without China playing its rightful part is unsustainable.
Some in the West bet on India replacing China as the new star of growth and choose to play down its structural defects, policy inwardness, macroeconomic imbalances and market vulnerabilities. Both the US and China are too big to fall. They need a rethink to consolidate some form of multipolar strategic coexistence.
Hong Kong cannot control the global political headwinds. But it must make the best of one country, two systems and persist as an open city of freedom, diversity and inclusiveness. Beijing still prefers Hong Kong to be institutionally distinct and world-embracing, as underscored by President Xi Jinping’s July 1 speech last year.
If it lacks institutional vibrancy and international confidence, the city is of little added value to the nation. It will lose its strategic relevance if it abandons its verve and global connections. National security concerns, made more acute by geopolitics, should not cloud over every facet of daily life, or the city’s long-cherished creativity and can-do spirit will diminish.
To rediscover its niche, Hong Kong may well take stock with a “3S” test – what it can do that Shanghai or Shenzhen can’t, and where it is still strong compared to Singapore.
Anthony Cheung is a former secretary for transport and housing (2012-17) and former president of the Education University of Hong Kong (2008-12, then known as the Hong Kong Institute of Education)
