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Opinion
Mike Rowse
Mike Rowse
Hong Kong leader John Lee deserves a B+ for his first year, but many challenges lie ahead
- On balance, the Hong Kong chief executive has done a good job in the past year
- Going forward, two pressing issues he will have to deal with are whether to carry on with the expanded HK$2 fare scheme and the Fanling housing plan
Over the weekend, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu marked his first year in office. It is time for his annual report card. In my view, he has performed well over the past 12 months: I can recall several clear successes, and only one area where I think he could have done better. Let us review his performance and also take a look at the key issues confronting him in the next few months.
First, he has the unique achievement of dealing smoothly with two civil service pay awards inside a year, after his predecessor declined to act on the 2022 proposal during her term. Within days of taking office, Lee nailed the first. He has now dealt with the second, also without drama.
Another clear success is the steady unwinding of Covid-19 controls. Nine months into his term, all the restrictions were gone, including the stifling mask mandate. Lee also launched a much-needed programme to revive the tourism industry. Though clumsily named, it is starting to produce results to the extent that the restoration of flights has hit manpower constraints. Resources were also found for another round of consumer spending vouchers to boost public morale and the local retail market.
As the first year drew to a close, the government appointed a supremo to drive forward development of the Northern Metropolis. Better late than never.
It is notable that Lee’s practice is to move purposefully and steadily, first assembling all evidence, then making a set of firm pragmatic decisions and organising implementation. The methodology is very much to be expected from a senior policeman, which he once was.
The one area where I think he could have done better concerns drawing a line under the social disturbances of 2019. To this day, it is unclear whether the police has made a decision on the 6,000 people who were arrested but not charged back then.
It cannot be long before the courts start to rule that prosecutions should not proceed because of the lapse of time. How can witnesses be expected to remember clearly what happened on individual days four years ago? Earlier this year, the commissioner of police seemed to suggest the exercise would come to an end shortly. The sooner the better, so our social fabric can start to heal.
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One year with Hong Kong leader John Lee: Is he on the right track? | Talking Post with Yonden Lhatoo
One year with Hong Kong leader John Lee: Is he on the right track? | Talking Post with Yonden Lhatoo
Turning to the future, Lee’s second year begins with an urgent need to review two of his predecessor’s major decisions. This will not be easy because the whole concept of executive-led government assumes previous conclusions were sound and should now be implemented without undue delay. The extension of the HK$2 concessionary transport fare scheme to those aged 60 to 64 was a major blunder and has to be reversed.
The bill totalled HK$3 billion in the last financial year, and a staggering HK$6 billion is estimated for the current year. The recently launched exercise to combat abuse is necessary but will not do much to reduce the financial cost. The population is ageing, so more will become eligible, while transport fares will continue to rise.
Ageing Hong Kong can’t afford ‘sky’s the limit’ fare subsidy for elderly
Ageing Hong Kong can’t afford ‘sky’s the limit’ fare subsidy for elderly
This represents a budgetary Armageddon. Phasing out the right for those in the 60-64 age bracket will have to be carefully handled. All I can suggest is increasing the qualifying age by one year every two years. An increase in the passenger’s contribution is inevitable but will not be popular.
The second concerns the absurd proposal to construct public housing on the golf course at Fanling. This option was promoted by the previous chief executive and has since been vigorously defended by the present administration.
The problem for Lee is that the plan has been called into serious doubt by parties making presentations to the Town Planning Board over the past two weeks. The Heung Yee Kuk has offered a site which is more suitable and can provide the equivalent number of housing units.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s foremost tree expert, Professor Jim Chi-yung, has shown in a comprehensive report, the presentation of which to the Town Planning Board I attended, that contrary to the optimistic assessments in the environmental study, most trees in the development area are likely to die, even if attempts are made to relocate them, because their root systems are too extensive to be moved with them. Full disclosure: one of my wife’s companies is a paid consultant to the Hong Kong Golf Club.
Organisers of the upcoming Saudi-sponsored golf tournament have stated categorically the proposed housing would make Hong Kong a much less attractive venue in the region.
It is the Saudi angle that will give Lee most angst. There is an ongoing geopolitical shift, and China is busy making more friends in the Middle East. When President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia in December last year, he pushed for China to be able to pay for oil in renminbi instead of US dollars.
Lee followed with a visit in February and secured the golf sponsorship. There have since been several commercial deals signed between Saudi and Chinese businesses. The ultimate target would be a secondary listing for Saudi oil giant Aramco, one of the world’s most valuable companies, on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
With so much at stake, Lee will need to be in top form. So a good first year and a B-plus so far, but many more challenges ahead. He will be OK if he sticks to the evidence.
Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises
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